Good discussion
Posted by Mike_Doran on 8/24/2009, 11:08 am
Only problem with verification is that it again misses the out liner.

Okay this is where I think I can be sort of an expert and talk about flaws in arguments.  And as a background I have taken 5000 level probability and statistics classes, so its not just being a professional who argues for a living.  This very very exact same (how's that for articulate) argument is made on a bb in the climate change debated called climateaudit.org by Steve McIntyre, who is . . . (I just threw up a little) a statistician.  Again, the problem with statistical models is they may well pick up a linear trend, but they might also be lulling you to sleep for that out liner event.  And it gets back to that main problem with statistical approaches, and that is correlation is cause.

Joe Bastardi 'verifies' in a much different way than then the NHC--he has to have viewers and subscribers and advertising. He is, what, a third generation meteorologist?  I can't remember if he's a second or third.  Anyway, he may explain things in ways only he can, and I don't want to create a diety as Tim properly explains, but he certainly puts on the table such ideas that 'old timers' talk about.  Like if an area hasn't been hit by a hurricane for a long time it's more likely to be hit.  Ideas that wouldn't pass muster in a statistical world are capturing, perhaps, the mechanisms--the causes of storms.  JB certainly gets into teleconnections . . .

If it's good for the goose, it's good for the gander.  If we want to talk about McIntyre like statistical verification, how about backing up some of these invests and colored boxes that busted totally during the early part of the season when it was quiet?????  Hmmm?  Again, the NHC should be patted on the back when they get it right, but equally they then should be unafraid in an open government and a free society of critical comments, including from other agencies within NOAA.  The truth is like butter in the mixer getting churned from cream.  It always rises to the top.
23
In this thread:
Bravo to the National Hurricane Center !! - HSNN4, 8/22/2009, 9:26 pm
< Return to the front page of the: message board | monthly archive this page is in
Post A Reply
This thread has been archived and can no longer receive replies.