Re: Bravo to the National Hurricane Center !!
Posted by Cape_Fear_NC on 8/24/2009, 7:47 am
Good morning Jim. A light bulb just went off in my head.

Okay - yes, the NHC did have to THINK. (I was being a bit hyperbolic myself but I thought the main point was clear - the forecast wasn't all that difficult.)

Now the light bulb...

You and some others often refer to the finer details of hurricane forecast tracks; such as "the centerline" or "misses by X number of miles" and so on - and compare Bastardi to the NHC.

No one is questioning the NHC's superior accuracy - what's being questioned is the logic in assuming the public lives and dies by Bastardi's forecasts, that Bastardi is a "threat" to the NHC, that Accuweather will take over the weather world and so on and so on.

I would suggest some of you are staring at one tree, trying to burn it down with your eyes - while ignoring the forest.

In the REAL world - a public buzz begins days before a hurricane arrives. In the REAL world - hurricane watches and or warnings are issued, businesses may close, people watch the media and talk to each other, and so on. There are vast tentacles of interaction in people's lives; they don't live in caves, magically tuning in only to Bastardi and tuning out everything else.

For the general public - a hurricane is either coming or it's not. They're not analyzing models and doing all we do - they're SHEEP and will all do the same thing. No matter who is telling them - they'll go into action en masse simply because everyone else is. Those who don't - don't do so because just one TV weather "visitor" suggests they don't (which of course he wouldn't anyway) - they don't because it's their nature not to in the first place. And if the NHC has a "problem" with Bastardi - tough. Crimany, they couldn't even handle a new director who came from the NWS.

Some people have put themselves into an "anti-bastardi" box - and can't extricate themselves. We have choices; we can learn from and enjoy the guy or we can rail against a superior meteorologist simply because he insulted "our team." Pointing out all of Bastardi's or Accuweather's faults is a smoke screen that fools few; and certainly won't get the rest of us into that little box. What would truly be refreshing is for some to climb out of the box and say "aw heck, the guy really ain't all THAT bad."

I'm really drained on this subject...I'm docking the battleship now.

Tim in NC


P.S. I hope to see Bastardi links here in the future; many of us enjoy him and like to see as many analytical views as possible.
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Bravo to the National Hurricane Center !! - HSNN4, 8/22/2009, 9:26 pm
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