Re: Confidence looks better
Posted by
Gianmarc on 10/22/2010, 10:08 am
I understand that JAC--I'm perfectly aware of the dynamics that contribute to poleward motion in more powerful storms. I think the point here is that a powerful ridge trumps those dynamics every time just as good pitching beats good hitting every time. I think this is an important point, because too often I see people saying "stronger storms go north" as if it's that simple. It's not.
You can pit a 190 mph hurricane directly south of a powerful ridge--the ridge will keep it from gaining latitude every time.
If Richard moves poleward in the gulf, the more pivotal factors will be
1. An approaching trough
2. Richard will be clearing the western periphery of the ridge that will soon steer it west
3. The aforementioned steering ridge will erode
If you have a cat 4 Richard, let's say, and the steering ridge becomes powerful and continues to build west, Richard's intensity alone will not be enough to send him poleward--in that scenario, you would need a trough to send Richard north--the storm's intensity would be irrelevant. |
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