Update #5 Re: An electrics discussion of TDII(Ana)
Posted by Mike_Doran on 8/17/2009, 7:11 pm
Two things.  

1.  The QBO isn't right yet to produce a big storm like a Wilma--the electrics and the upper level atmospherics still produce this lopsided storms.  In the case of Ana, the low level circulation is well to the south of the convection.

2.  Give poor space weather but at the same time elevated CO2 from fossil fuels which has conductivity meaning, IMHO the best model year for what is occurring right now is 1915, the year AFTER the very quiet 1914.  Given that, we should have a storm tracking though the Carribean only to make it into the GOM.  That is what I think Ana will do.  I don't have a computer model or anything except that history and stearing currents and where the COC is right now.  I don't think hispanolia is going to kill it as the COC is south of the island and will remain there.  The theta t is there now:




http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

See the COC south of hispanolia in the visible.

That is all.
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An electrics discussion of the Atlantic twin A and B storms. - Mike_Doran, 8/16/2009, 1:33 am
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