Update #4
Posted by Mike_Doran on 8/17/2009, 11:51 am
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-rgb.html

Pretty good blow up of COC SW of Puerto Rico.

http://wwlln.net/bobholz/toga/puertorico/vlf.png

Individual lightning measuring unit in Puerto Rico.

http://wwlln.net/five_day_density_average.jpg

Five day average strikes.  Note the number of strikes in the Americas compared to the rest of the world.  The number isn't going to drop, either, with the remnants of the 'C' storm moving NE OVER LAND proximate to the Gulf Stream.



Note core strikes inside area of COC--core strikes, as A storm RIs.  Also no ULL NW of A storm with many many strikes.  This is a proximate source of electron precip/displacement currents.  So even though traditionally you think of an ULL as hard on tropical entities in this case there is an organizing feature.  Note very few strikes in B storm.



During RI of B storm last night thunderstorm was just off African coast over land.  Now remnants from that thunderstorm are over water and not a powering source of electrics.  Next big thunderstorm near the coast is some time off.  This means that electrical conditions are now much more favorable for the A storm over the B storm, despite the fact that the B storm has more water to have altered by favorable electrical conditions.

SOI index has slowly been rising over past week and is now positive slightly over 6.  Atlantic conditions are regionally favorable.  Globally space weather continues to be exceptionally quiet.  Solar winds are slightly elevated with earth directed coronal hole, but under 300 km/second with 500 km/second where it starts to matter negatively.  There is has been no xray activity for two days and no sun spots for over 36 days.

Big issue w/ A storm if it can pass north of Haiti with minimal issues with land sea interaction and be over water tonight that the ULL is going to first show the way then this storm will benefit from huge amounts of lightning related to the remnants of the C storm and A storm will then intensify and turn toward that lightning against the models.

That is all.
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An electrics discussion of the Atlantic twin A and B storms. - Mike_Doran, 8/16/2009, 1:33 am
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