An electrics discussion of the Atlantic twin A and B storms.
Posted by Mike_Doran on 8/16/2009, 1:33 am


For new readers--sorry I don't have time to repeat a lot of the things I have written about sun spots and the quiet season so far.

Spent today with my family.  The last weekend before school starts.  Went shopping . . . well, I drove the girls to the shopping center and waited and carried bags of new clothes.  Then I got even with the women in my life by watching a terrific movie on HBO called the Express about Ernie Davis--the first black to win the Heismann.  He died of lukemia at age 23.  

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Now that image above and not to give Tom 'Doorman' any grief (if you go to storm2k I am sure they have a star trek image up and kirk going--it's dead, jim), but the t numbers show SOME life in it again.  

Let me see if I can explain.  When the thunderstorms came off the African coast at first before they were over water both A and B storms were named.  Then the Tstorms went over the Atlantic and instead of being a proximate source of displacement currents and power to help  couple the twin storms, the became a power drain.  

At the same time space weather, xray activity out of no where in particular with lack of coronal hole or sun spot activity, has been diminished.  So our twins suffered. A in particular is not as far north nor around so much moist air or as large.

HOWEVER, there has been tremendous lightning from the west of the storm particularly over North America.  I would say based on my view of the past there is a lot less lightning in SOUTH america but that may simply be a function of it not quite being spring there.  Anyway, lot of lightning in South and Central America and so naturally the pattern continues to move west even if TD2 is 'dead, jim', in a barotropical sense, the electrics associated kept moving along in the same places, and so regeneration was probable to occur, particularly with its twin so close nearby.

So that is what was.  The important part is to explain what will be.  Any fool can hindcast.

So this is what I will necessarily say about the future.

A new coronal hole has formed.  It is forecast to bring elevated space weather.  IMHO it ALREADY HAS and was expressing itself with that xray activity out of no where.  I don't know much about the sun, so that is speculation.  What is not speculation is that coronal holes eventually bring higher xray activity initially and then a few days later solar winds from the earth directed holes bring elevated solar winds. The former enhance RI, the latter is hard on intensification.  

The SOI index rose again slightly and rose despite the G storm in the EPAC and our twins in the Atlantic.  That rise is IMHO behind a lot of the lightning in North America, too, or related to it anyway.  That G storm brings in patterns and moisture that present lightning, IMHO, again another observation that I can't explain much.  Eventually, however, it seems to favor the Atlantic.  Real scientists tend to call this the MJO moving to the Atlantic.

Finally, I have to comment on what I see is a lack of typical lightning in South America--I don't know what to make of it.  I really don't.  Does that mean a smaller chance of RI? Or just that it's headed for where the lightning is?

I do know in 1914 the only storm to be noted hit Florida where there is all sorts of lightning.  With so much moisture and activity in the GOM, this isn't a good sign not for what those instabilities will be but for the powering displacement currents to keep our twins alive and growing and moving west--toward where they are.

So anyway, that's about all I have, except when to expect possible RI from space weather:



Solar winds are expected to become elevated on 8/18--which means about three days from now xray activity should be peaking.  There are very warm (and therefore conductive and interesting also from a thermodynamic standpoint) SSTs where are twins are headed . . .
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An electrics discussion of the Atlantic twin A and B storms. - Mike_Doran, 8/16/2009, 1:33 am
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