Jeff Masters and Bob Henson's blog
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 8/26/2023, 11:09 pm
https://yaleclimateconnections.org/topic/eye-on-the-storm/
Has a post from earlier while it was still invest 93L. (though they updated some at the top after it became a depression)
I haven't had a chance to watch Levi's video yet, but the the Masters/Henson blog is something people in the path should read too. The storm is currently forecast to make landfall as a category one hurricane. That changes one line they said, but the important part to just be prepared for is the other part:
"While the most probable outcome is that 93L will be a strong tropical storm at landfall, we should not be surprised if it makes landfall as a rapidly intensifying hurricane."
And the NHC with language in the first discussion (5pm EDT Saturday) reflecting how it's too early to know some of the impacts:
"Although it is too soon to specify the exact
location and magnitude of these impacts, residents in these areas
should monitor updates to the forecast of this system and ensure
that they have their hurricane plan in place."
From the Key Messages in the Discussion:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/
We just need to see how long it takes to organize a bit better. It's currently moving at around 1 to 2mph. That gives it some time to organize. It doesn't have to worry about upwelling right now, where it could churn up cooler waters and potentially impact the intensity. That's for a much stronger system. The best thing would be for it to be moving fast so that it has less time to organize and then strengthen up until landfall.
While writing this post the 11pm discussing came out. (I was adding Franklin's radar when it made landfall a few days ago in Hispaniola to my YouTube page tonight)
NHC in the 11pm EDT Saturday discussion:
"Assuming the depression's center does not move over the Yucatan
Peninsula, very warm waters and low to moderate vertical shear
should support gradual strengthening during the next few days. The
NHC intensity prediction is a little below the consensus aids during
the first 36 hours of the forecast but then converges with those
aids thereafter, showing the system reaching hurricane strength by
60 hours. The system is expected to remain a hurricane, and
potentially continue strengthening, up until it reaches the Gulf
coast of Florida on Wednesday. Users are reminded to continue
monitoring forecasts for any changes to the system's expected
intensity as it approaches Florida."
The NHC is below some of the forecast intensities from the hurricane models. I like to pay very close attention to wording in the NHC discussions. "Assuming the depression's center does not move over the Yucatan Peninsula, very warm waters and low to moderate vertical shear should support gradual strengthening during the next few days." That part doesn't make it seem like shear will be much.
I don't like to pay a whole lot of attention to the hurricane models HMON and HWRF until a system is developed a bit more, but they are stronger. HMON not by much right now, 84mph peak, but for some reason in that model it strengthens, then weakens and then strengthens again. That doesn't seem likely and I don't know why. (and it's not due to land interaction in the Yucatan) So I don't think that's a really good judge. The HWRF is higher. We need to see how fast the storm organizes. If it takes a few days to do much, that's better. If it all of a sudden starts organizing a lot and starts deepening faster, that's not good.
Looking at the SHIPS intensity text output at 8pm EDT Saturday (0Z Sunday), there is a 30% chance of the storm increasing in intensity by 65 knots within 72 hours. That means a 30% chance that it will be a 110mph hurricane within 72 hours. (from 30 knots when the model was run to 95 knots)
From the latest file at the top of this folder containing "AL1023":
https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/?C=M;O=D
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 30% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
Recon occurs on Sunday.
Satellite floaters:
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater.php?stormid=AL102023
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=al102023 |
1
In this thread:
Invest 93L, approaching the Gulf, has a high chance of development -
Chris in Tampa,
8/26/2023, 1:41 am- 4 Things To Know As Potential Hurricane Idalia Eyes Florida - Marshall Shepherd Senior Contributor - cypresstx, 8/27/2023, 10:54 am
- Re: Invest 93L, approaching the Gulf, has a high chance of development - stevemc12, 8/27/2023, 8:42 am
- Now Tropical Depression Ten - tvsteve, 8/26/2023, 7:57 pm
- 2am EDT Saturday: 90% chance of development over the next week - Chris in Tampa, 8/26/2023, 2:37 am
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