Invest 93L, approaching the Gulf, has a high chance of development
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 8/26/2023, 1:41 am
Message modified by a board administrator (Chris in Tampa) on 8/26/2023, 2:32 am
NHC's Atlantic 7-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7
5 things on the map, but what could be named Idalia is the main focus right now for many. (Bermuda and Canada should be watching Franklin, but at the moment the GFS and Euro doesn't show landfall in Canada and there might not be much impact in Bermuda, but it's still early.)
Gulf Satellite:
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16§or=gm&band=13&length=24
Colorado State Floaters:
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/
College of DuPage Gulf Satellite:
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-gulf-13-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=data
GFS:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn
Euro:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn
When viewing the Euro, use the 0Z or 12Z runs to see the longer Euro. 6Z and 18Z are short term and don't go out as far.
Still a lot of difference between the two, in part because it hasn't formed yet. It's still early.
In looking at the GFS and Euro ensemble members, there is a lot of spread. Obviously not shocking given it hasn't formed yet.
GFS Ensemble members:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=watl&pkg=lowlocs
Euro Ensemble members:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps®ion=watl&pkg=lowlocs
GFS is left of the Euro.
A hurricane seems to be very possible based on the current models. For the intensity though, I don't like to put a lot of weight into the hurricane specific models (like HWRF and HMON) until something is further defined. As for the global models on Tropical Tidbits, the GFS has a category 1 hurricane and the Euro has what looks to be a strong tropical storm.
SHIPS intensity text output as of 0Z Saturday has a peak of 78 knots (90mph) before landfall (but it could be a little stronger as that is the last forecast model point before landfall):
https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/?C=M;O=D
Click the latest file containing "AL9323" at the top of the folder.
Some relevant lines from that run:
* INVEST AL932023 08/26/23 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 23 25 31 42 49 62 65 71 78 75 63 54 46 43
V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 23 25 31 42 49 62 65 71 78 56 36 30 28 30
"V (KT) LAND" takes land into account. The other version doesn't.
Storm specific models:
https://hurricanecity.com/models/
We don't really know too much about the intensity yet, other than a category one hurricane is definitely possible. We'll see over the next day or two if it is more likely than not that it will be a hurricane.
I decided to fill up my gas tank. I was near empty as I was going to see if gas prices might come down, but with this and a refinery fire in Louisiana Friday, I decided to fill up. I don't say that because I think I'll have to evacuate, just that when there is anything around there is some basic stuff that should be done. If you live along the northern to eastern Gulf coast, you should be reviewing what you would do in a storm.
Hurricane Preparedness:
https://www.noaa.gov/hurricane-prep
Air Force hurricane hunters will likely investigate 93L starting Sunday.
Plan of the Day:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/recon.php
A NOAA high altitude research mission is possible over the Gulf Sunday. (I originally said Saturday when I initially posted this) Perhaps that will be releasing sondes to get data that will go into some of the models. That data is usually helpful to get into the models when it comes to the path.
NOUS42 KNHC 251450
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1050 AM EDT FRI 25 AUGUST 2023
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 26/1100Z TO 27/1100Z AUGUST 2023
TCPOD NUMBER.....23-087
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 74 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 75
A. 27/0000Z A. 27/1200Z
B. AFXXX 1208A FRANKLIN B. AFXXX 1308A FRANKLIN
C. 26/2215Z C. 27/0945Z
D. 23.7N 67.5W D. 25.2N 68.3W
E. 26/2330Z TO 27/0300Z E. 27/1130Z TO 27/1500Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
G. FIX G. FIX
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES ON FRANKLIN.
B. A POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA
NEAR 20.0N 86.2W FOR 27/1800Z.
C. A POSSIBLE NOAA G-IV SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO DEPARTING KLAL AT 27/1730Z.
3. REMARKS:
A. THE NOAA 43 P-3 AIRCRAFT WILL CONDUCT TWO APPROXIMATELY
7.5-HOUR RESEARCH MISSIONS TOMORROW INTO FRANKLIN,
DEPARTING TISX AT 26/0830Z AND 26/2030Z.
B. THE NOAA G-IV AIRCRAFT MAY CONDUCT A 8-HOUR RESEARCH
MISSION TOMORROW INTO FRANKLIN, DEPARTING KLAL AT 26/1400Z.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
Recon data will appear here:
https://hurricanecity.com/recon/ |
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In this thread:
Invest 93L, approaching the Gulf, has a high chance of development - Chris in Tampa, 8/26/2023, 1:41 am- 4 Things To Know As Potential Hurricane Idalia Eyes Florida - Marshall Shepherd Senior Contributor - cypresstx, 8/27/2023, 10:54 am
- Re: Invest 93L, approaching the Gulf, has a high chance of development - stevemc12, 8/27/2023, 8:42 am
- Now Tropical Depression Ten - tvsteve, 8/26/2023, 7:57 pm
- 2am EDT Saturday: 90% chance of development over the next week - Chris in Tampa, 8/26/2023, 2:37 am
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