06Z GFS 500MB Major Change
Posted by Cape_Fear_NC on 8/20/2009, 6:30 am
Probably the most significant change I've yet seen in a single run - has just occurred with the 06Z GFS at 500mb.

The U.S. trough and the North Atlantic trough show noticeable amplification - thereby slowing down their forward progress. The High northeast of Bill shifts westward, as does Bill himself - to the tune of a whopping hundred miles by the time he's abeam Cape Hatteras! The 582mb isobar picks up Bill six hours earlier than the previous model run.

The GFS still has Bill about 100 miles left of previous track in 72 hours while well off the coast of Delaware and New Jersey. And again, about 100 miles closer to Cape Cod in 78 hours (cutting that miss by half.)

At 84 hours, the new GFS has Bill approaching the U.S. Canadian border; landfall imminent.

On a final note, it appears on water vapor imagery, Bill is currently making a jog to the left.

Tim in NC

P.S. The 06Z NAM does not agree with any of the above; it keeps Bill on the old track.
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06Z GFS 500MB Major Change - Cape_Fear_NC, 8/20/2009, 6:30 am
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