Re: Long Island Hurricane Way Overdue?
Posted by
Gianmarc on 8/19/2009, 9:52 pm
I have to agree entirely.I knwo that Jim has had fascinating success predicting landfalls based on whether a place is over due or not, but to me the concept of a particular location being "over due" for a hurricane is silly. Atmospheric patterns don't schedule landfalls according to odds. Whether Long Island got hit last year or last century has no bearing on the possibility of a pattern setting up that brings a threat to that location--if we see a scenario in which a stalled front is in the forecast as a ridge is building towards the US from the east and a storm is nearing 30N, we'll have a NE storm like we did with Bob, Gloria and the L.I.E. Until then no odds will make it happen any sooner or later.
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