Re: Long Island Hurricane Way Overdue?
Posted by
Fred on 8/19/2009, 4:55 pm
Went through a stretch from 1893-1938(45 yrs) without a direct hit here.Had 2 that were just off shore in between that time(1916,1936).
Are we over due? i would say yes,but that doesn't increase the odds of a strike in any given year.
Return periods can give a false sense to some people.Like the chart says for us here on Long Island it says return period for A cat 1 is 17 years.If the genral public sees that and we get hit this year,they may think we will be safe from hurricanes for 17 years.And same can be said for not getting hit for 17 years.
The 17 is just an average,doesn't mean it's going to happen that way.
Look at the time between 1954-1971(17 years) we got hit with 3,But if you want to go by the return period it shoould have only happened 1Between 1894-1937(43 years)we should have gotten hit 2 times,but got none.Return period is just an average |
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