Re: 1am EDT Wednesday Position Update: 110mph; N at 16 mph
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 8/30/2023, 1:33 am
I was just reviewing my notes that I took earlier. Water level as of 1:18am EDT, 3.81 feet.
Using MLLW datum:
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/waterlevels.html?id=8726607&units=standard&bdate=20230829&edate=20230830&timezone=LST/LDT&datum=MLLW&interval=6&action=
At about 4.87 feet, give or take several inches:
High side of street at the front entrance to my neighborhood starts to flood. If raining, additional water will make this area higher than expected as it won't be able to drain into canal.
At about 5.44 feet:
Water comes over the sea wall (sooner if waves)
(front entrance under approximately 0.57 feet of water)
At about 5.6 feet:
Center of the street at the storm drain one house away begins to flood.
At about 5.87 feet, give or take several inches, about 0.43 feet over level of sea wall:
Front entrance under 1 foot of water.
At about 7.63 feet:
My garage floods
At about 8.36 feet:
Floor of my house floods
Forecast guidance with this warning:
"During tropical cyclones, water level Forecast Guidance data are released for limited public utility and should be used with appropriate caution. It does not represent the official NOAA water level forecast."
Is for 6.67 feet at 11:30am. (when selecting MLLW datum in drop down box)
But at the moment, we're now 0.48 feet above forecast guidance. (yesterday we were below it) If that continued exactly, we'd be at 7.15 feet. (not including waves) So you can see why I am watching things closely. And why the NHC's "Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map" for Tampa Bay, which literally doesn't even show a 10% chance of exceeding "Greater than 1 foot above ground" for me:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/032734.shtml?inundation#contents
Is not only wrong, but downright dangerous. There will be homes in Tampa Bay under feet of water after it looks like we've made it through and the sun is mostly shining. Even the neighborhood next to me (Dana Shores in the Town 'n' Country / Rock Point area), parts of which will be under a few feet of water if things continue as they are, doesn't show the 10% chance of exceeding "Greater than 1 foot above ground" for the vast majority of the neighborhood.
Now I'm off to bed to sleep for a few hours. |
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