Re: Heading for the east coast?
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 8/23/2023, 3:25 am
The storm has been less organized than forecast so far, so it's been more uncertain about where the low level center is even, though the NHC at 11pm Tuesday said it was looking better on satellite.
The satellite presentation of Franklin has improved since the last
advisory. Recent Proxy Vis imagery suggest that the low-level
circulation has become better defined, although there is still some
question exactly where the center is. The overall cloud pattern
suggests the low-level center is closer to a recent burst of deep
convection, closer to the mid-level circulation found by the last
NOAA reconnaissance mission.
I keep forgetting to mention "Proxy Vis imagery". I never heard that term until recent NHC discussions in the past week.
About:
https://rammb2.cira.colostate.edu/research/goes-r-research/proxyvis/
Link below to data in Colorado State's interactive SLIDER display, which has lots of great other data. Direct link to ProxyVis imagery:
https://col.st/If0lU
You're right, it's early. A lot of models don't go out that far. Among the ones that do, Canada is shown to be possibly impacted. But with the low level center hard to find, the models aren't going to be quite as reliable yet I think.
Right now Hispaniola will be up first with isolated amounts of 15 inches that could cause flash flooding and mudlides. Turks and Caicos Islands near the Bahamas have tropical storm watches. Bermuda and the U.S. should watch, with Canada too of course.
I like the GFS Ensemble member product here:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=atl&pkg=lowlocs
To track all the individual lows for each of the members of the GFS ensemble. Not to see any exact forecast track, just to see where in general they go and if they are closer together or further apart. Bermuda and Canada are more possible at the moment than the U.S. Once the center is better defined, and we see what the storm looks like after Hispaniola, we'll have a better idea. We'll see how the mountains impact it. It's possible it might still be reforming a center north of the island for awhile.
Caribbean satellite:
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16§or=car&band=13&length=24 |
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Franklin is minted -
cypresstx,
8/20/2023, 6:44 pm Post A Reply