special update - still at 50/70 for 2/5 days though
Posted by cypresstx on 8/20/2017, 5:34 pm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWOAT+shtml/202021_MIATWOAT.shtml

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
420 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to update discussion on
the remnants of Harvey.

Updated:  An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating the remnants of Harvey found that the system still lacks a well-defined center of circulation, and so far there is no indication of winds to tropical storm force.  Satellite images indicate that the associated showers and thunderstorms have changed little in organization since earlier today.  Gradual development of this system is possible, and it could become a tropical cyclone once again while it moves west-northwestward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea, near the northern coast of Honduras, during the next day or two.  The system is expected to reach Belize or the Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday, and then move into the Bay of Campeche by the middle of the week, where redevelopment appears more likely. Interests in northern Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Satellite data indicate that a trough of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles north of the Dominican Republic is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms, with some strong winds on its northeast side.  Environmental conditions are expected to be unfavorable for development of this system during the next day or two, but they could become slightly more conducive for development by midweek when the system is near the northwestern Bahamas or Florida.  This system is expected to move west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

A large area of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms located about 900 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands is associated with a trough of low pressure.  This system is currently embedded in a dry air mass, and upper-level winds are expected to become too strong to support development in a day or so.  Therefore, tropical cyclone formation is not likely while this system moves northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Berg


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Harvey & the big picture - cypresstx, 8/19/2017, 8:45 am
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