Became an open wave yesterday, advisories ended at 11pm last night
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 8/20/2017, 6:02 am
They will monitor it for possible regeneration. If needed, they could issue warnings even before it becomes a depression/tropical storm again.

It's back to being monitored in the 5 day outlook, even though the X is on the front page right now for it dissipating.

They talk about conditions possibly improving. As of 2am, chance of formation is 30% in 48 hours and 40% in 5 days.

Floaters:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters.html





Remnants Of Harvey Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017
1100 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated Harvey
earlier this evening and was unable to close off a center of
circulation.  The plane found a well-defined wind shift across the
wave axis, and winds decreased as the plane flew south along the
axis toward a pressure minimum south of 14N.  Harvey has therefore
degenerated into an open wave, and this will be the last advisory.
Maximum surface winds, as measured by the plane, remain 30 kt.  As
a side note, the associated deep convection has continued to lose
organization and is now oriented linearly from northeast to
southwest along the wave axis.

Harvey's remnants are moving quickly westward with a motion of
275/19 kt.  A fast westward to west-northwestward motion is
expected to continue for the next couple of days as the wave moves
along the southern periphery of the subtropical ridge.  A break in
the ridge caused by a mid- to upper-level low over the Gulf of
Mexico could cause the system to turn northwestward and slow down
as it moves across the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of
Campeche in 3-5 days.

The global models, particularly the GFS and ECMWF, deserve a lot of
credit for showing Harvey dissipating, or at least not
strengthening, over the Caribbean Sea.  Even though the vertical
shear that has been plaguing the system is expected to diminish in
24-48 hours, the system's fast motion and ambient dry air will
likely keep Harvey's remnants from regenerating into a tropical
cyclone in the near term.  For that reason, the solutions shown by
the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET appear most reasonable, keeping the
system as an open wave, or possibly regenerating to a tropical
depression before it reaches Belize and the Yucatan coast.
Regeneration is also possible if the remnants emerge over the Bay
of Campeche.

The remnants of Harvey will be monitored for signs of regeneration
and for the possibility of bringing tropical storm conditions to
Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of
days.  If necessary, advisories could be resumed and tropical storm
watches or warnings issued before Harvey regains tropical cyclone
status.  Please refer to the Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook for
this system's potential to regenerate into a tropical cyclone,
beginning with the 2 AM issuance on Sunday morning.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/0300Z 14.3N  71.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...REMNANTS OF HARVEY
12H  20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

NHC: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/








Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Harvey, which has degenerated into a tropical wave over the
central Caribbean Sea.

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central Caribbean
Sea are associated with the remnants of Harvey.  Unfavorable
upper-level winds and dry air are expected to inhibit development
today.  Environmental conditions could become a little more
conducive for regeneration by Monday when the system moves
west-northwestward over the northwest Caribbean Sea, and interests
in northern Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan peninsula
should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

2. A trough of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles north of
the Leeward Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions are not expected to be
conducive for development of this system during the next couple of
days while it moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.  Conditions
could become slightly more conducive for development once the system
is near the northern Bahamas or Florida later this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

3. A large area of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms located
about 1000 miles east of the Leeward Islands is associated with a
trough of low pressure.  The system is currently embedded in a dry
air mass, and upper-level winds are expected to become too strong to
support development in a couple of days.  Therefore, tropical
cyclone formation is not likely while this system moves
northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Brown

From: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5
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Harvey & the big picture - cypresstx, 8/19/2017, 8:45 am
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