Re: One is an invest, two are afternoon t-storms
Posted by
Skip Wiley on 8/28/2016, 9:36 pm
I was... (eating my foot now)...
Thanks for all the great insight. I have to admit after all the hype, the reliance on models, and the mets and lots of folks discounting the actual status (or lack thereof) of 99L, I as everyone was astounded by the up and down nature of formation chances. I really had come to have more confidence in the Euro than the GFS based upon past seasons performance.
The intensity graphs have really confounded me as all the models had this thing going hot. And in hindsight, lots of folks using models inappropriately such as the HWRF which is not good at genesis.
As someone mentioned, this storm was in the spot that was a death sentence to every storm (I think) since 2008 and it couldn't get inflow over Hispaniola. After the active late 90's and the crazy early to mid 2000's I think we were used to storms going gunny fast.
Take home message- I think when we see a storm with defies the models and looks terrible we should utilize the human knowledge and experience and lay off the models so much. With a storm away from land and in an area of high TCHP, then we can defer to the models. The problem is so few observations is a vast area of the world. If we had the world spaced out the way WFO's are with their toolbox and knowledge of local geography and resultant weather then 99L may not have been such a hype machine. In the old days I think this storm would have been a just a wave and we would have just watched but, I'm afraid there will be more 99L's and people will ignore the hype and blow these storms off. And we all know how quick these things can go RI and the threat to life and property can be terrifying.
With all the tools at our disposal (us and pro mets) we tend to focus a lot on where it will go and what it will do . We are all fans of weather and we all like to do our own forecasts because its hella fun.
Eating crow,
Peace
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