Re: One is an invest, two are afternoon t-storms
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 8/27/2016, 8:18 am
We're in that period we often get in. Waiting.

In 5 days, 99L could still be in the Gulf. Some models do things faster with it of course, but it is
plenty of time for things to happen. You have Humberto that canetrakker mentioned, the poster
child for that kind of thing. An extreme of course, but look at the path of this invest:


Models through 5 days. (New models from the NHC suite they release are coming out within the hour)

How many times has an invest from around the coast of Africa come all the way across to the Gulf
and not developed?

It is a survivor, you have to give it that. I think 99L is something that needs to be watched until
dissipation or being inland, like we do every storm. (not counting inland in the peninsula of Florida
after which it could do something else regardless of which way it comes across)

I like to always leave a little uncertainty. Ivan in 2004 is an example. Ivan was done with Florida
and then came back around, though not officially anything at the time, and then redeveloped a little and
made it way across the Gulf. Weird things happen.

As it gets closer to the southern peninsula of Florida without developing, the threat of anything
significant decreases for there, but there is still a chance for other places of seeing something
more significant since there would be more time over water potentially.

It continues to have storms, but continues to suffer from too much shear. If the shear did finally
reduce, then it could still have a few days or more to do something. Maybe the shear will never let
up, but with days more to go, there's always a chance. This is 6 hours old, a new shear product
will be out within the hour...



                   * ATLANTIC     SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                   * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                   *  INVEST      AL992016  08/27/16  06 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    25    27    29    30    36    42    48    53    58    62    67    67
V (KT) LAND       25    25    27    29    30    36    42    48    53    58    62    67    67
V (KT) LGEM       25    25    26    26    27    30    33    36    41    45    49    54    57
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)        19    18    13    14    16    12    13     7    10     2    14    11    23
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -2    -5    -6    -6    -4    -5    -3    -3    -3    -3    -5    -5    -5
SHEAR DIR        317   334   339   328   330     1   332   343   306   270   266   236   265
SST (C)         29.7  29.8  29.9  29.9  29.8  29.8  29.9  30.0  30.0  29.9  29.9  29.7  29.6
POT. INT. (KT)   163   165   167   167   165   164   167   168   168   166   165   161   159
ADJ. POT. INT.   148   150   151   150   147   145   148   147   146   143   141   135   131
200 MB T (C)   -52.8 -53.1 -52.8 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -53.2
200 MB VXT (C)   0.2   0.3   0.0   0.2   0.5   0.4   0.1   0.2   0.1   0.2   0.3   0.1   0.0
TH_E DEV (C)      10    10    10    10    11    10    10     9     9     9     8     9     8
700-500 MB RH     61    62    66    65    62    66    64    66    61    61    57    60    56
MODEL VTX (KT)     5     5     6     6     5     6     5     6     5     6     5     4     3
850 MB ENV VOR     3    11    29    40    32    41    40    43    30    41    11     0   -45
200 MB DIV         0     1    22    23    -1    39     6    25    16    15     7     7    -1
700-850 TADV     -13    -4    -2    -6    -6     0    -6     1     0     1     6     0     7
LAND (KM)        149   134   122   102    99   128   190   307   423   333   228   125    56
LAT (DEG N)     23.1  23.4  23.6  23.8  23.9  24.3  24.5  25.1  25.7  26.5  27.2  28.0  28.6
LONG(DEG W)     77.1  78.1  79.0  79.9  80.8  82.4  83.8  85.3  86.5  87.6  88.4  89.0  89.2
STM SPEED (KT)     9     9     8     8     8     7     8     7     6     6     5     4     3
HEAT CONTENT      73    70    56    46    42    42    63    41    47    48    42    44    42

 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/  8      CX,CY:  -7/  2
 T-12 MAX WIND:  25            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  640  (MEAN=618)
 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  14.7 (MEAN=14.5)
 % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:   7.0 (MEAN=65.0)
 PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR):            3.9

                       INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                        6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                       ----------------------------------------------------------
 SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  11.  11.  12.  13.  13.
 SST POTENTIAL          0.   0.   0.   2.   6.  12.  19.  24.  28.  33.  36.  38.
 VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   3.   4.   5.   6.   6.   5.   4.   4.   3.   2.  -1.
 VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   1.   2.   2.   3.   5.   6.   6.   7.   7.   7.   7.
 VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.
 PERSISTENCE            0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.   0.
 200/250 MB TEMP.       0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.
 THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   1.
 700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -4.  -3.
 MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -4.  -4.  -6.  -7.  -9.
 850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
 200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   1.   1.
 850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.
 ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.
 STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.   0.   0.   0.
 DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
 GOES PREDICTORS       -1.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -5.  -6.  -6.  -6.  -6.  -5.  -3.  -3.
 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
                       ----------------------------------------------------------
 TOTAL CHANGE           0.   2.   4.   5.  11.  17.  23.  28.  33.  37.  42.  42.

               CURRENT MAX WIND (KT):   25. LAT, LON:   23.1    77.1

     ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992016 INVEST     08/27/16  06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

    Predictor             Value   RI Predictor Range  Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):     0.0     -49.5  to   33.0       0.60           3.6
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :    16.0      28.8  to    2.9       0.49           1.3
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) :    57.4       0.0  to  155.1       0.37           0.7
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :    14.7      37.5  to    2.9       0.66           1.7
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP  :     0.6       2.8  to   -3.1       0.37           1.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt)     :    25.0      22.5  to  121.0       0.07           0.1
D200 (10**7s-1)       :     9.0     -23.1  to  181.5       0.16           0.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :   124.2      28.4  to  139.1       0.87           1.3
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm:     0.0     100.0  to    0.0       1.00           0.6
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2):    91.8     960.3  to  -67.1       0.85           0.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=   7% is   1.2 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  16% is   1.4 times sample mean (11.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  11% is   1.5 times sample mean ( 7.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   9% is   2.1 times sample mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=  14% is   2.7 times sample mean ( 5.1%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
---------------------------------------------------------------------
 RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48
---------------------------------------------------------------------
  SHIPS-RII:     6.5%   16.2%   10.6%    8.9%    0.0%    0.0%   13.6%
   Logistic:     2.0%   13.1%    6.6%    1.8%    0.0%    1.8%   13.2%
   Bayesian:     0.0%    0.7%    0.1%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%
  Consensus:     2.9%   10.0%    5.8%    3.5%    0.0%    0.6%    8.9%

  ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992016 INVEST     08/27/16  06 UTC         ##
  ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4                          ##
  ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992016 INVEST     08/27/2016  06 UTC **
TIME(HR)   0-12  12-24(0-24)  24-36(0-36)  36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%)     0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%)      0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED

** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
     TIME (HR)      0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS)  25    25    27    29    30    36    42    48    53    58    62    67    67
18HR AGO           25    24    26    28    29    35    41    47    52    57    61    66    66
12HR AGO           25    22    21    23    24    30    36    42    47    52    56    61    61
 6HR AGO           25    19    16    15    16    22    28    34    39    44    48    53    53
     NOW                              CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
 IN  6HR                              INTENSITY IN  6HR < 83 KT
 IN 12HR                              INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT




From: http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/
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One is an invest, two are afternoon t-storms - Skip Wiley, 8/26/2016, 11:38 pm
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