First time ECMWF & GFS in sync on this system
Posted by
Beachlover on 8/28/2016, 1:30 pm
As per cypress' post from Tallahassee:
both the GFS and ECMWF show the tropical system in the gulf lifting to the north then northeast entering Apalachee Bay late Thursday and making landfall across the southeast Big Bend Thursday night.
As far as I can remember, this track agreement as of the 00z runs today is a first for these two models since we started keeping track of 99L. Here are links for the motion graphics:
ECMWF
GFS
Yes, things could change again, and usually do, as the Tallahassee forecaster wisely reminded us. Still...it's a first.
BTW, though way too far out to be reliable (384 hours or so), it's also interesting that the 00z GFS shows the newest African wave following a similar path through the Gulf and hitting the same area with a more intense storm.
Concern in the Tampa Bay area, which would be on the south side of these disturbances, may ramp up a bit now, I'd guess. |
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In this thread:
99L, 8pm EDT Saturday: 48hr chance, 40%; 5 day, 50%; both up 10% -
Chris in Tampa,
8/27/2016, 7:54 pm- As of 2 p.m. Sunday, now up to 60% and 80% - here we go! N/T - Beachlover, 8/28/2016, 2:35 pm
- Another 10% on 5 day - Beachlover, 8/28/2016, 2:24 am
- Re: 99L, 8pm EDT Saturday: 48hr chance, 40%; 5 day, 50%; both up 10% - beachman80, 8/27/2016, 8:25 pm
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