from Tampa, Sun AM discussion
Posted by cypresstx on 8/28/2016, 6:24 am
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326 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.SHORT TERM (Today and Monday)...
Upper troughing continues to dominate the northern and western CONUS, with weak ridging extending across the Western Atlantic and into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast U.S. Along the southern periphery of this ridge, several weak tropical disturbances continue to drift westward. One such disturbance near Cuba will be the primary weather maker over the next couple of days.

For today, expect a similar convective evolution as we have seen over the last two days. However, models indicate some slightly drier mid level air may mix down from the north. This may limit shower and thunderstorm coverage overall, and will reflect that with only chance PoPs through the afternoon. Showers are already n progress across the Florida east coast. As destabilization occurs by late morning and early afternoon, expect this activity to expand inland and move westward through the evening. Gusty winds and heavy rain will accompany any stronger storms that manage to develop today, though they may be more sparse than yesterday with the mid level drying.

From tonight into Monday, we will continue to monitor the tropical disturbance near Cuba as it slowly moves northwestward through the Florida Straits and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by early Monday. Due to some lingering dry air and modest wind shear, conditions do not appear conducive to rapid development of this system, and any strengthening will be slow to occur. Still, the presence of a weak area of low pressure in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico will bring about southeasterly flow across the Florida peninsula, which tends to be a wetter pattern in general for west- central and southwest Florida. This will lead to greater rain chances for Monday, especially along and south of the I-4 corridor nearer the deeper tropical moisture. Again, any heaver showers or stronger storms may produce gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall/minor flooding will be a concern. Conditions do look to become more favorable for tropical development beyond Monday, and the system will need to be closely monitored into early next week.

.MID/LONG TERM (Monday night-Saturday)...
A low pressure center in the vicinity of Dry Tortugas National Park MON night slowly drifts northward over the central or eastern Gulf of Mexico through midweek. During the latter part of the week the low approaches the central or eastern gulf coast then takes a northerly or northeasterly trajectory. Atlantic high pressure begins to build west...between the Keys and Cuba on FRI.

The models initially are in fairly good agreement but diverge through the week. However they all maintain deep tropical moisture with PWAT values in excess of 2 inches. This will support scattered to numerous showers with isolated to scattered thunderstorms... resulting in heavy rainfall and the possibility of localized flooding. Winds will increase especially on the Gulf and some caution or advisory headlines are likely. The rainfall and clouds will help keep highs running below normal while the lows stay on the warm side due to the cloud cover. With much uncertainty in the future of this system residents are advised to use the most current forecasts.
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99L, 8pm EDT Saturday: 48hr chance, 40%; 5 day, 50%; both up 10% - Chris in Tampa, 8/27/2016, 7:54 pm
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