from Tallahassee, Sun AM discussion
Posted by
cypresstx on 8/28/2016, 6:29 am
https://twitter.com/iembot_tae
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407 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016
.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Tuesday]...
Although the models are in much better agreement this past run, there still remains much uncertainty with the evolution of the tropical disturbance which will be crossing the Florida Keys and entering the southeast Gulf of Mexico tonight. The latest GFS and ECMWF tracks the low slowly west northwestward through Tuesday. The ECMWF solution shows a 1003 mb low roughly 370 miles south of Pensacola and the GFS a 1007 mb low 300 miles south of Pensacola at 00z Wed. Still far enough away to have minimal impact on our local weather through the short term. Monday will see another day with low PoPs (~20%) for late August as the deep easterly flow continues. On Tuesday, the models show deep layer moisture surging northward up the Florida Peninsula on the east side of the tropical disturbance. The deepest moisture may only reach the southeast Big Bend by late Tuesday so PoPs will be tapered 20% northwest to 50-60% for the far southeast. Temps will still be at or above seasonal levels with highs in the lower to mid 90s.
.LONG TERM [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...
The upper ridge centered over the mid-Atlantic states and responsible for the easterly flow across our region the past several days is forecast to break down as a trough digs down the eastern seaboard. As the trough deepens, both the GFS and ECMWF show the tropical system in the gulf lifting to the north then northeast entering Apalachee Bay late Thursday and making landfall across the southeast Big Bend Thursday night. The EURO solution shows a stronger system than the GFS. While the models are in much better agreement, this solution may change multiple times so we are advising all interests in the local region, especially coastal residents to monitor the development of this system closely. For now we are showing some increase in showers and thunderstorms by the middle to late week, mainly for the Florida zones, but this could change significantly as we move through the upcoming week.
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In this thread:
99L, 8pm EDT Saturday: 48hr chance, 40%; 5 day, 50%; both up 10% -
Chris in Tampa,
8/27/2016, 7:54 pm- As of 2 p.m. Sunday, now up to 60% and 80% - here we go! N/T - Beachlover, 8/28/2016, 2:35 pm
- Another 10% on 5 day - Beachlover, 8/28/2016, 2:24 am
- Re: 99L, 8pm EDT Saturday: 48hr chance, 40%; 5 day, 50%; both up 10% - beachman80, 8/27/2016, 8:25 pm
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