Sunday, 8 AM discussion, 99L, 40-60%
Posted by cypresstx on 8/28/2016, 7:59 am
000
AXNT20 KNHC 281150
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Gaston is centered near 30.1N 54.6W at 28/0900 UTC or about 540 nm east of Bermuda moving northwest at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 60/75 nm of a line from 29N56W to 31N52W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 30/45 nm of a line from 27N57W to 30N53W. Please see the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

A 1009 mb low pressure is off the coast of Cuba near 24N80W with a surface trough extending from 26N79W through the low then across Cuba to 21N83W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from Andros Island to Cuba between 78W-80W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are from 19N-26N between 76W-81W and from 21N-25N between 81W-86W. This system has a medium chance of of tropical development over the next 48 hours. Upper-level winds are not conducive for significant development today while this system moves westward through the Straits of Florida. Environmental conditions are forecast to become a little more conducive when the low moves into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Monday. Regardless of development, gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall are likely over portions of the central and northwestern Bahamas and Cuba through tonight. These winds and rains will spread into parts of southern Florida and the Florida Keys later today.

Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased during the past few hours in association with an area of low pressure located about 250 miles west of Bermuda centered near 31N69W.  While environmental conditions are only marginally conducive, some additional development of this system is possible during the next day or so while it moves west-northwestward at about 10 kt. As the low approaches the coast of North Carolina by mid-week, conditions are expected to become unfavorable for further development. This system has a medium chance of of tropical development over the next 48 hours. For additional information on this system, see the High Seas Forecasts under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNMT02 KNHC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic extends from 15N33W to 10N35W moving west near 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave is embedded within an area of dry stable air, thus no associated showers or convection.

Tropical wave in the west Caribbean extends along 86W south of 20N to inland over Central America moving west near 10 kt over past 24 hours. Wave is embedded within an area of deep moisture. Scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are from 18N to inland over Central America between 84W-87W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 13N17W and continues along 10N25W to 8N34W where the ITCZ begins and continues along 9N47W into South America near 6N57W. Small clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are from 5N-9N between 24W-31W and from 8N-11N between 52W-57W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper low is centered near 28N93W with an upper trough covering the northwest Gulf supporting a surface trough that extends from the Texas coast near 29N95W along 26N94W to 24N93W. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are north of 28N to inland over southwest Louisiana and southeast Texas between 93W-95W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are from 25N-30N between 91W-93W. An upper ridge is anchored in the Bay of Campeche near 20N93W and extends a ridge axis northeast along 26N87W to over the northeast Gulf coast. The remainder of the west Gulf is under clear skies again this morning. The low off the coast of Cuba in the Special Features is expected to drift into the southeast Gulf tonight and may become a tropical depression in the east Gulf before turning toward the north.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper low is centered in the west Caribbean near 18N83W covering the area north of 15N west of 78W. The upper low over the south/central Atlantic covers the remainder of the Caribbean. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are from 14N-18N between 74W-79W and south of 13N to over Colombia between 72W-76W. Scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are within 120 nm of a line from 14N64W to over Hispaniola near 19N71W. The activity over Cuba is associated with the low in the Special Features and the activity over the west Caribbean is associated with the tropical wave. Please sections above. Tropical wave will move out of the Caribbean Monday. Fresh to strong trade winds will develop over the south/central Caribbean Monday night through mid week.

...HISPANIOLA...

Currently scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms cover the east portion of the island. The upper low over the south/central Atlantic will shift west toward Hispaniola through Tuesday. Lingering moisture will continue to give the island the possibility of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms with skies clearing early on Tuesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper low is centered near 31N76W covering the west Atlantic north of 26N west of 71W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are from 28N-30N between 72W-78W. A weak 1011 mb low is centered west-southwest of Bermuda near 31N69W. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are from 31N-33N between 69W-72W. A cutoff upper low is in the south/central Atlantic near 21N61W covering the east Caribbean and supporting a surface trough that extends from 24N62W along 23N63W 19N63W across the Virgin islands to 17N64W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 90 nm of a line from 24N60W to 18N62W with scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms within 90 nm of a line from 19N63W to 26N67W. The remainder of the east Atlantic east of 50W is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1026 mb high northeast of the Azores. The low west-southwest of Bermuda will drift west-northwest toward the Carolinas through Monday. The low off the coast of Cuba in the Special Features will move through the Straits of Florida later today.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

PAW/ERA
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99L: An Important Question Many Are Failing to Ask - Gianmarc, 8/27/2016, 5:38 pm
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