99L: An Important Question Many Are Failing to Ask
Posted by Gianmarc on 8/27/2016, 5:38 pm
Guys, I get our collective fascination with forecast models and loops. I do. I am as obsessed with both as anyone else in this terrific forum. But now that it's clear 99L is about to survive its thus-far perilous journey across the ATL basin at least to the extent of finally entering the Gulf of Mexico, I believe it is time to look beyond the models and beyond what the system looks like in the present on sat. loops and consider the future environment this system is about to enter. I see very few, if any posters here today paying attention to the massive upper level low that is digging into the Gulf of Mexico at this time. In my experience watching storms for decades, I am yet to see a developing system thrive in an environment in which is is thrust into close proximity with a ULL, no less one as large and seemingly potent at the one currently spinning off the Texas coast and extending across the western two thirds of the GoM. The HWRF can pound its chest all it wants about a Cat 4 emerging in the Gulf and slamming into Tampa or LA or wherever, but I have a very hard time understanding how that is going to happen when more than half the confined body of water in which it is supposed to do this currently is dominated by a ULL. I am unable to post links right now thanks to a problematic cell phone while on the road, but take a look at the wind shear forecast and tendency maps available at the University of Wisconsin's website. Yes, the eastern third of the Gulf is noted as "favorable" but go any further west than that and you are looking at 20kts of shear. Look at any water vapor loop of the Gulf tight now. I think it behooves us to not get caught up so much in models and loops that we fail also to consider the very important factor of whether or not 99L enters a more conducive environment when it gets into the Gulf. At best right now I would say the answer to that question is "Maybe."
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99L: An Important Question Many Are Failing to Ask - Gianmarc, 8/27/2016, 5:38 pm
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