Re: It turns out it seems to be curving closer after all
Posted by hanna on 10/19/2014, 10:38 am
You are right.  I think serious memories have resurfaced and that is not good; however, Hawaiians are from what I have seen are a calm and orderly when it comes to storms etc...



The Central Pacific Hurricane Center continues to monitor Hurricane Ana as it continues to move south of the Hawaiian Islands. Maximum sustained winds are 80 miles per hour, with higher gusts. Ana is expected to weaken below hurricane strength on Sunday. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Kauai; a Tropical Storm Watch for Oahu, and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for uninhabited Nihoa.
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=21.94360863400044&lon=-159.49388972299974&site=all&smap=1#.VEPFU2chBKY


Satellite Fix Bulletin:

TPPZ01 PGTW 191222

A. HURRICANE 02C (ANA)

B. 19/1131Z

C. 20.7N

D. 159.7W

E. FIVE/GOES15

F. T3.5/4.0/W0.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS 1.00 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 3.5. MET AND PT AGREE WITH DT. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
  19/0755Z  20.2N  159.7W  MMHS


  SCHALIN



Current Northwest Pacific/North Indian Ocean* Tropical Systems

   No Current Tropical Cyclone Warnings.

* Includes Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea
Current Central/Eastern Pacific Tropical Systems

Tropical Depression 20E (Trudy) Warning #06 Final Warning
Issued at 19/0400Z

   TC Warning Text
   TC Warning Graphic
   JMV 3.0 Data
   Google Earth Graphic Overlay

Hurricane 02C (Ana) Warning #23
Issued at 19/1000Z

TC Warning Text:

WTPN31 PHNC 191000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 02C (ANA) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 02C (ANA) WARNING NR 023    
  02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
  MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
  WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   ---
  WARNING POSITION:
  190600Z --- NEAR 20.1N 159.2W
    MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
    POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
    POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
  PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
  MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
  WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
  RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                           010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                           000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                           020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                           020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                           010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                           030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                           060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                           040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                           070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  REPEAT POSIT: 20.1N 159.2W
   ---
  FORECASTS:
  12 HRS, VALID AT:
  191800Z --- 20.7N 160.2W
  MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
  WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
  RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                           010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                           000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                           020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                           020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                           010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                           030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                           060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                           040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                           070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
   ---
  24 HRS, VALID AT:
  200600Z --- 21.0N 161.9W
  MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
  WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
  RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                           000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                           000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                           015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                           015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                           010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                           020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                           060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                           040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                           070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
   ---
  36 HRS, VALID AT:
  201800Z --- 21.5N 163.5W
  MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
  WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
  RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                           010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                           010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                           020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                           060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                           030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                           070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
   ---
  EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
  48 HRS, VALID AT:
  210600Z --- 22.3N 165.0W
  MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
  WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
  RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                           010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                           010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                           020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                           060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                           030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                           060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
   ---
  72 HRS, VALID AT:
  220600Z --- 24.0N 167.5W
  MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
  WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
  RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                           010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                           010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                           020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                           060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                           030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                           060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
   ---
  LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
   ---
  96 HRS, VALID AT:
  230600Z --- 26.0N 169.0W
  MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
  WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
  VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 09 KTS
   ---
  120 HRS, VALID AT:
  240600Z --- 29.5N 169.5W
  MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
  WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   ---
REMARKS:
191000Z POSITION NEAR 20.3N 159.5W. HURRICANE 02C (ANA), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 103 NM SOUTHWEST OF HICKAM AFB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
191600Z, 192200Z, 200400Z AND 201000Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION
20E (TRUDY) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Sadly JTWC is not current and for some reason they don't have satellite images of the East Pacific or Central Pacific storms.
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Hurricane Ana, HI is very lucky. - hanna, 10/18/2014, 9:12 pm
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