Take note of this HPC discussion
Posted by JAC on 10/1/2010, 8:01 am
PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
357 AM EDT FRI OCT 01 2010

VALID 12Z TUE OCT 05 2010 - 12Z FRI OCT 08 2010

THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD IN DEVELOPING A
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST AND MAINTAINING A QUASI-STATIONARY DEEP CYCLONE
OVER/NEAR CALIFORNIA.  THE 00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF ARE CLOSE TO THEIR
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS...SO CHOSE TO COMPROMISE BETWEEN THEM
FOR THE PRESSURES AND 500 HPA HEIGHTS FOR NEXT WEEK.  THE 00Z
CANADIAN COULD NOT BE USED DUE TO ITS RECURVING HURRICANE-LIKE
VORTEX JUST OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND INTO ATLANTIC CANADA MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK.  THE 16Z CONFERENCE CALL BETWEEN HPC AND NHC AGREED NOT
TO RECURVE THIS FEATURE...WHICH FITS THE 12Z MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE WHICH TRACKS IT SLOWLY THROUGH THE GREATER ANTILLES.

ROTH


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97L Slowly Coming Together - TC Formation Alert on NRL - JAC, 10/1/2010, 7:34 am
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