CaneTalk: no one understands

no one understands

Posted by Mike_Doran on 8/19/2009, 12:55 pm

Starting with the NHC they themselves with lead forecaster Avilia have stated many times that they can only REPORT intensity, not forecast it. These are FACTORS of a complex system.

Theta ts are diminishing and not connected to ocean at the root, BTW--only SA presently.

Plus it's moving north away from the ITCZ.

SSTs are changing in front of it. It's experienced mechanical shear and its anti cyclone is to its west.

One part of the puzzle.

In this thread:

Track is one thing, intensity forecast is another - JAC, 8/19/2009, 8:56 am

Latest NAM & GFS comparisons - JAC, 8/19/2009, 12:10 pm
Re: Track is one thing, intensity forecast is another - BobbiStorm, 8/19/2009, 11:17 am
- Looks to be gradually heading more NW then WNW - Storm Nut, 8/19/2009, 11:30 am
Bump up in X-ray flux. - JAC, 8/19/2009, 10:27 am
- thus squeezing the core of bill - Mike_Doran, 8/19/2009, 11:57 am
  - Re: thus squeezing the core of bill - JAC, 8/19/2009, 12:15 pm
    - Getting some weakening in the raw T's - JAC, 8/19/2009, 12:20 pm
      - Re: Getting some weakening in the raw T's - SC, 8/19/2009, 12:22 pm
        no one understands - Mike_Doran, 8/19/2009, 12:55 pm
        Re: no one understands - JAC, 8/19/2009, 1:07 pm
        Re: no one understands - JAC, 8/19/2009, 1:00 pm
        Re: Getting some weakening in the raw T's - JAC, 8/19/2009, 12:26 pm
  - moreover with mesovortices - Mike_Doran, 8/19/2009, 12:03 pm
- Anti-cyclone has moved away from COC - JAC, 8/19/2009, 10:52 am
- Current core temp up to 6C now - JAC, 8/19/2009, 10:34 am
- Another EWRC starting up - JAC, 8/19/2009, 10:31 am
ps before going in the shower - BobbiStorm, 8/19/2009, 9:12 am
Re: Track is one thing, intensity forecast is another - BobbiStorm, 8/19/2009, 9:02 am
- Re: Track is one thing, intensity forecast is another - JAC, 8/19/2009, 10:16 am
  - Re: Track is one thing, intensity forecast is another - BobbiStorm, 8/19/2009, 10:36 am
    - Bobbi, how ULL's become Tropical - Jake, 8/19/2009, 11:02 am
      - Re: Bobbi, how ULL's become Tropical - BobbiStorm, 8/19/2009, 11:15 am
    - Bobbi: look at this link - JAC, 8/19/2009, 10:58 am
    - Re: Track is one thing, intensity forecast is another - JAC, 8/19/2009, 10:46 am
      - Re: Track is one thing, intensity forecast is another - BobbiStorm, 8/19/2009, 10:57 am
        Re: Track is one thing, intensity forecast is another - Conclue, 8/19/2009, 12:02 pm
        Re: Track is one thing, intensity forecast is another - JAC, 8/19/2009, 12:26 pm
        Re: Track is one thing, intensity forecast is another - snowmanbos, 8/19/2009, 12:13 pm
        Re: Track is one thing, intensity forecast is another - Conclue, 8/19/2009, 12:34 pm
        Re: Track is one thing, intensity forecast is another - JAC, 8/19/2009, 12:39 pm
        Re: Track is one thing, intensity forecast is another - SC, 8/19/2009, 12:07 pm
        Re: Track is one thing, intensity forecast is another - JAC, 8/19/2009, 12:05 pm

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