Re: Track is one thing, intensity forecast is another
Posted by JAC on 8/19/2009, 10:16 am
Bobbi - hope you get to be feeling better.

I can sympathize.  I have been nursing a bad sprained ankle for the last week and half.

OK, so for the ULL question.
As far as warm-cores spinning dowm, I don't know.  Never seen it happen.  I think its an urban legend.

Everyday, there are ULL's but they are cold-core.  Don't need a ITCZ connection.

A warm-core needs a feed of high theta-e air in from the boundary layer.  That is why the MIMIC-TPW is so significant to watch.


So, for the current roll.  That is what is what I am trying to drive at.

It doesn't look good at the moment - almost like it will get cut off.

Your probably saying, the farther north Bill goes, the more the feed will thin out.

Not so fast.  Bertha did this very thing last year and kept a great connection well north into the Atlantic.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Bertha_(2008)


Unfortunately, CIMSS doesn't heve the late July archive available and can't show you a pretty picture.




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Track is one thing, intensity forecast is another - JAC, 8/19/2009, 8:56 am
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