Track is one thing, intensity forecast is another
Posted by JAC on 8/19/2009, 8:56 am


So, how strong will Bill be around 35N?

Three things to watch.

1) Shear
2) SST's
3) Theta-e infeed

1)  As the CONUS trough gets close to Bill, shear will increase.

2) SST's around 28 to 29C - can develop a TC and easily support a major cane.

3) Theta-e infeed is the most interesting.  This is what you see on MIMIC-TPW.

It needs a strong connection to southerly warm waters; preferably into the ITCZ.  
The theta-e forecast shows that this connection will be strong.  
It will actually be indirectly feeding from the hot GOM and Carib waters as well.













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Track is one thing, intensity forecast is another - JAC, 8/19/2009, 8:56 am
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