Re: 5pm EDT Tuesday update of SLOSH model
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 8/29/2023, 8:16 pm
| The pictures below are of the neighborhood next to me, Dana Shores. The picture was at 3:18pm EDT. The water level at the Old Tampa Bay tidal station was 3.98 feet at that time. The water level tomorrow is forecast to be 6.89 feet at 12:30pm EDT. That forecast guidance has this note: "During tropical cyclones, water level Forecast Guidance data are released for limited public utility and should be used with appropriate caution. It does not represent the official NOAA water level forecast." But that guidance would mean the level could rise 2.91 feet (6.89 minus 3.98) above what you see in that picture. That would mean moderate flooding. (and would flood some homes in that neighborhood) That's not reflected in the "Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map" map. That are is straddled between gray area and "Greater than 1 foot above ground" level on that legend. Again, the NHC public advisory says 4-6 ft: "The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide". From public advisory at 5pm EDT Tuesday: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/292354.shtml So while that forecast guidance isn't official, it matches with that. The surge could be around 3.5 feet at the time. Without a storm, today's low tide was forecast to be -0.01 feet. Without a storm, tomorrow's highest high tide was forecast to be 3.28 feet. So that would be a bit over 6.75 feet, near the range of the 4 to 6 feet from the NHC. Closer than the misleading either no data or "Greater than 1 foot above ground" which has a 10% chance of exceeding. 3:18pm:  3:19pm:  3:19pm:  3:22pm - Front entrance to my neighborhood in the distance:  |
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In this thread:
5pm EDT Tuesday on Hurricane Idalia: 100mph; N at 16 mph; 972mb - Chris in Tampa, 8/29/2023, 5:15 pm
- 5pm EDT Tuesday update of SLOSH model - Chris in Tampa, 8/29/2023, 7:16 pm
- that's bizarre - cypresstx, 8/29/2023, 7:57 pm
- Re: that's bizarre - Chris in Tampa, 8/29/2023, 8:20 pm
- agreed n/t - cypresstx, 8/29/2023, 8:29 pm
- Re: that's bizarre - Chris in Tampa, 8/29/2023, 8:20 pm
- current Local Statements include, Fl, GA, SC NC & VA - cypresstx, 8/29/2023, 7:06 pm
- 5:48pm EDT Tuesday: Pressure down to 968mb based on NOAA recon - Chris in Tampa, 8/29/2023, 6:26 pm
- Re: 5pm EDT Tuesday on Hurricane Idalia: 100mph; N at 16 mph; 972mb - Chris in Tampa, 8/29/2023, 5:28 pm
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