5pm EDT Tuesday update of SLOSH model
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 8/29/2023, 7:16 pm
While things for parts my area do look better, the latest run of the SLOSH model seems overly positive to be honest for my area:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/213341.shtml?inundation#contents
NHC advisory for Tampa Bay is 4 to 6 feet. But that map specifically is dramatically lower than before. From greater than 9 feet earlier in the day to now greater than 1 feet in part of the neighborhood next to me, with 10% chance of exceeding. It was almost exceeding that this afternoon in a ditch. A few inches from starting to flood the road.
If the map is true, the worst would seem to be behind us. It's not. We still have surge of 1.3 feet above normal right now.
I wasn't going to post that it looked a bit better for my area because I didn't want anyone to be off their guard, I'm watching like a hawk. I was looking at forecast guidance that shouldn't actually be relied on that said for Old Tampa Bay using the MLLW datum, which you have to select to match the default that is used elsewhere on the site, at 12:36pm EDT tomorrow the level is forecast to be 6.89 feet. Only .33 feet less than several hours ago. That's still about 4 feet of surge with moderate flooding.
That forecast guidance comes fro here, though this page has a lot of issues with working, at least for me:
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/inundationdb/storm/Idalia.html
Just go with what the NHC says, don't rely on that for Tampa Bay. |
1
In this thread:
5pm EDT Tuesday on Hurricane Idalia: 100mph; N at 16 mph; 972mb -
Chris in Tampa,
8/29/2023, 5:15 pm- 5pm EDT Tuesday update of SLOSH model - Chris in Tampa, 8/29/2023, 7:16 pm
- current Local Statements include, Fl, GA, SC NC & VA - cypresstx, 8/29/2023, 7:06 pm
- 5:48pm EDT Tuesday: Pressure down to 968mb based on NOAA recon - Chris in Tampa, 8/29/2023, 6:26 pm
- Re: 5pm EDT Tuesday on Hurricane Idalia: 100mph; N at 16 mph; 972mb - Chris in Tampa, 8/29/2023, 5:28 pm
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