Tropical Depression Six Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062023
1100 PM AST Sun Aug 20 2023

Proxy-vis satellite imagery indicates that the center of the
depression remains exposed with convection displaced to the east.
The system is also starting to be impacted by the outer rainbands
of Tropical Storm Franklin. Based on a blend of objective and
subjective satellite estimates, the initial intensity remains at
30 kt for this system.

The depression remains in a strong deep-layer sheared environment,
while also starting to be impacted by outer bands of Franklin.
Models and simulated satellite data show the system becoming a
remnant low overnight and dissipated in 24 hours.

The depression is moving west-northwestward, and this
general motion is expected to continue until dissipation occurs.
The track forecast is very similar to the previous forecast, and
lies near the consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 16.7N 55.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 16.8N 57.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Brown

Tropical Storm Gert Special Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062023
1200 AM AST Mon Aug 21 2023

Recent satellite wind-derived data indicated that winds in the
northeast quadrant were a little over 35 kt. Conventional enhanced
infrared imagery showed cooling cloud tops of -85 Celsius in the
same region of the cyclone. Accordingly, the depression is
upgraded to a tropical storm on this Special Advisory.

No changes to the forecast track and intensity philosophy are
required. Since the environment is still expected to be
hostile with very strong westerly shear during the next day or so,
Gert should degenerate into a remnant low later today, and
dissipate by Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0400Z 16.7N 55.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 16.8N 57.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts