5:00 PM AST Sat Aug 19
Location: 16.7°N 50.2°W
Moving: WNW at 16 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph

Tropical Depression Six Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062023
500 PM AST Sat Aug 19 2023

Visible imagery has shown a partially-exposed, well-defined
low-level circulation for the past several hours. Infrared imagery
has also shown deep convection persisting since around 0600 UTC east
of the center with cold cloud tops of less than -85 degrees C.
Therefore, the system now meets the necessary requirements to be
classified as a tropical cyclone. Subjective satellite estimates
from TAFB and SAB are 35 kt and 25 kt, respectively, and the initial
intensity is set to 30 kt based on that data.

Models indicate that the depression is currently in a relatively
hostile environment. There is strong deep-layer vertical shear and
the mid-level relative humidities are near 40 percent. These
conditions are not expected to change much and global models suggest
this will be a short-lived depression. Simulated satellite imagery
from the ECMWF shows a few bursts of deep convection that are
sheared away by 48 hours. The official forecast shows a steady-state
depression through 36 hours that degenerates to a remnant low in 48
hours, and dissipates by 60 hours. This prediction is near the
various consensus model guidance.

The depression is moving west-northwestward at 14 kt. It is
currently being steered by a narrow low-level ridge to its north.
The system is expected to turn more westward and slow in forward
speed over the next day or so followed by a slight bend back to the
west-northwest on day 2. The NHC track forecast is near the simple
and corrected model consensus aids, and leans towards the more
southerly ECMWF track.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 16.7N 50.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 17.0N 52.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 17.3N 54.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 17.6N 56.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 18.1N 58.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci