Re: Is there anything brewing for the East Coast this Memorial Day Weekend?
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 5/23/2016, 9:37 pm
Eastern U.S. view of GFS:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=eus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn
(You can also access other global models, and other runs, along with other regional views on that page)
Click the little dot where the low will form and you can see it could be somewhat tropical:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/index.html
Once you click a dot you get two diagrams discussed here:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/help.html#phase
So it could be something more subtropical.
But the low there, as of the 18Z GFS, is shown as what might only be a depression. Here is a chart of approximate pressures in comparison to wind:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html
It's approximate of course. (And if you had an environment of lower pressures, it might even be less wind)
So perhaps a subtropical depression is possible. But if you go back several runs on that first model link, like 6Z Monday, you can see that it was a little stronger in that run, a weak tropical storm perhaps. And to see the phase diagram for that low for that specific run, 6Z:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/archive/16052306/147.html
(link may expire) It was more tropical in that run too.
To kind of see where it would come from, you can compare a wider view of the GFS:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn
To current satellite imagery:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/imagery/carb.html
Maybe keep an eye on the NHC "Surface Forecasts":
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/
Nothing yet on there. (but only surface through 72 hours)
You could also keep an eye on this:
http://digital.weather.gov/?zoom=5&lat=30.93042&lon=-75.50373&layers=F000BTTTTTT®ion=7&element=9&mxmz=false&barbs=true&subl=TFFFF&units=english&wunits=nautical&coords=latlon&tunits=localt
National Digital Forecast Database Graphical Forecasts |
159
In this thread:
Post A Reply
This thread has been archived and can no longer receive replies.