Re: Is there anything brewing for the East Coast this Memorial Day Weekend?
Posted by
cypresstx on 5/24/2016, 12:58 pm
from WPC's extended forecast discussion: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd
EAST COAST...
THE 24/00Z CANADIAN MAINTAINS A RATHER COMPACT BUT ENERGETIC 500MB
VORTICITY CENTER ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER AT DAY 7...WHILE THE
GFS/ECMWF MAINTAIN OPEN WAVES AT 500MBS AND BRING A WEAKENED
SURFACE-BASED 'DISTURBANCE' ASHORE ON DAY 5 OR DAY 6. THE PROBLEM
WITH USING ANY OF THE 24/00Z DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE---IS LATITUDE.
A DAY 5 MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WOULD BE CENTERED OVER EAST CENTRAL
NC (THE ECMWF) OR CENTRAL SC (THE GFS). AT THE SURFACE---(A
1015MB-1016MB SPOT LOW WORKS)...BUT IT'S EITHER OFFSHORE EAST OF
WILMINGTON NC (ECMWF) OR INVOF CHARLESTON SC (GFS). HERE...TO
BLEND THE MEANS DOES WASH EVERY DETAIL OUT---BUT ACTUALLY
MAINTAINS GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS WPC D3-7 GRAPHICS
(DEPICTED AS AN INVERTED TROUGH). THIS SEEMS MORE THAN REASONABLE
WITH LITTLE EVIDENCE FROM THE 24/00Z ECMWF/GFS GUIDANCE THAT A
'VERTICALLY-STACKED' CYCLONE WITH TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IS
IMMINENT. PREVIOUS SENSIBLE WEATHER FOLLOWS. VOJTESAK
loop: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html
loops for days 1-5 from tcgen, v85, here: http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/, to see GFS, FIM8, FIM9, ECM, UKM, CMC & NAVG
in related news, OPC's lightning strike density went operational as of May 21st - very cool: http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/lightning/index.php
there's an east & west atlantic/tropics sector as well as a north atlantic view - another new fav cool tool...
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