Re: HWRF and GFS Forecast a Hurricane
Posted by Gianmarc on 8/19/2015, 8:54 am
I generally agree with that, Chris. If it does take the track I see in the 14-day GFS loop this morning, however, then it travels two bodies of water that historically have breeded monsters--the Florida Straits and the extreme southeast GoM between Havana and SW Florida. That's what makes that potential track alarming to me. We all remember watching Charley explode from Cat 2 to borderline 5 as it made its way off the north-central Cuba coast into Punta Gorda, and we know what the 1935 Labor Day 'cane did over the FL Straits.

The very important caveat there is that the upper levels would need to support the kind of intensity those patches of water enable, and, frankly, we have seen very little evidence so far this summer that the upper atmosphere is poised to become conducive for explosive intensification. Far, far from it.  
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NHC Upgrade to TD4 - BobbiStorm, 8/18/2015, 10:39 am
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