Re: HWRF and GFS Forecast a Hurricane
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 8/19/2015, 6:40 am
All places along the track where a category 5 hurricane has existed since 1851:



All places along the track where a category 4 or 5 hurricane has existed since 1851:



With the heat content low in the near term, and possibly throughout most of its track depending on where it goes, I don't think so. Dry air hanging around and heat content that is not extreme, I don't think it will get near that much. (unless atmospheric conditions became ideal near the Bahamas and it tracked that way where the heat content is more) I don't even know what shear is going to be like later on. It's been a long time since a category 5 showing how rare they are normally. If this is the season we see one again, the western Carib would be the more likely region and this storm is unlikely to go there based on the current thinking.

So far, the storm has been doing things slowly, only gradually strengthening. (at this very moment it is more steady-state)
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NHC Upgrade to TD4 - BobbiStorm, 8/18/2015, 10:39 am
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