Re: Orange? Invest 96L
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 8/16/2015, 10:12 pm
It's at "are showing some signs of organization" now. At 2pm it was "are beginning
to show signs of organization".



"TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Cloudiness and showers associated with a broad area of low pressure
located several hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands
are showing some signs of organization. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for development of this system during the next few
days and a tropical depression could form by midweek while it moves
westward near 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

Forecaster Cangialosi"



SHIPS intensity and shear forecast (August 16th, 8pm EDT):


                   * ATLANTIC     SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                   * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                   *  INVEST      AL962015  08/17/15  00 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    28    32    37    42    50    56    62    68    74    77    79    80
V (KT) LAND       25    28    32    37    42    50    56    62    68    74    77    79    80
V (KT) LGE mod    25    27    30    33    37    44    53    59    64    71    79    86    88
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)         2     1     3     2     1     3     7     3     3     7    14     8    12
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     8    10     4     1     2     3     5     6     5    -1    -6    -5    -5
SHEAR DIR        137    18    28    28   360   194   219   188   112   111   152   165   189
SST (C)         28.0  27.9  27.7  27.6  27.4  27.4  27.5  27.7  27.8  27.7  27.7  27.8  27.8
POT. INT. (KT)   137   136   133   132   129   129   130   132   133   131   131   133   133
ADJ. POT. INT.   138   136   133   132   129   128   129   130   130   126   126   129   129
200 MB T (C)   -52.8 -53.2 -53.1 -52.8 -52.8 -53.2 -53.1 -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2
TH_E DEV (C)       7     7     7     7     7     7     7     7     6     7     8     8     9
700-500 MB RH     64    65    65    66    67    62    63    62    63    56    50    45    41
MODEL VTX (KT)     5     5     5     6     6     6     7     7     8     8     9    10    10
850 MB ENV VOR    58    48    46    41    36    34    28    35    50    52    51    47    36
200 MB DIV        62    76    63    63    71    70   121    44    29    -3    -6   -29   -40
700-850 TADV      -3    -4    -4    -4    -6    -5    -8    -8   -11    -7    -1     0    -1
LAND (KM)       1374  1481  1588  1700  1813  1846  1641  1458  1324  1205  1120  1029   930
LAT (DEG N)     10.0  10.2  10.3  10.5  10.7  11.0  11.2  11.4  11.6  11.7  11.8  11.9  12.0
LONG(DEG W)     29.2  30.3  31.4  32.5  33.7  35.9  38.1  40.2  41.9  43.5  44.8  46.3  47.9
STM SPEED (KT)    11    11    11    11    11    11    10     9     8     7     7     8     8
HEAT CONTENT      16    15    15    15    16    21    18    12    12    16    18    20    27

 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11      CX,CY: -10/  0
 T-12 MAX WIND:  20            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  563  (MEAN=624)
 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  14.4 (MEAN=14.5)
 % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  62.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                       INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                        6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                       ----------------------------------------------------------
 SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  11.  12.  12.  13.  14.
 SST POTENTIAL          0.   0.   1.   2.   6.  11.  17.  22.  26.  28.  30.  31.
 VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   3.   4.   6.   9.  12.  14.  16.  17.  16.  15.  14.
 VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ    -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -4.  -2.  -1.  -1.
 VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.   1.   2.   2.   3.   1.   0.   1.   2.   2.   1.   0.
 PERSISTENCE            1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.
 200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.   0.
 THETA_E EXCESS         0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -6.  -8.  -9.  -9. -10.
 700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -1.  -1.
 MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   1.
 850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.
 200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   4.   4.   4.   3.   2.   1.   1.
 850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.
 ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.
 STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.
 DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
 GOES PREDICTORS        0.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -1.  -1.
 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
                       ----------------------------------------------------------
 TOTAL CHANGE           3.   7.  12.  17.  25.  31.  37.  43.  49.  52.  54.  55.

  ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962015 INVEST     08/17/15  00 UTC **
          ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   5.0 Range:-49.5 to  33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  1.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   1.9 Range: 28.8 to   2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:  1.0/  1.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  14.4 Range: 37.5 to   2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  0.9
850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  75.2 Range: 43.2 to  93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.8
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 108.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  0.5
Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  15.4 Range:  0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.1/  0.0
D200 (10**7s-1)       :  67.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C:  46.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.1

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    43% is   3.6 times the sample mean(11.9%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    28% is   3.7 times the sample mean( 7.6%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=    17% is   3.6 times the sample mean( 4.6%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=    11% is   3.7 times the sample mean( 3.0%)

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962015 INVEST     08/17/2015  00 UTC **
TIME(HR)   0-12  12-24(0-24)  24-36(0-36)  36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%)     0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%)      0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)


From: http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/

Path of the SHIPS model (version that takes into account land, even though there is no land in 5 days):
http://www.hurricanecity.com/models/data.cgi?basin=al&year=2015&storm=96&latestinvest=1&display=googlemap&latestrun=1&models=DSHP


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Orange? Invest 96L - BobbiStorm, 8/16/2015, 12:34 pm
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