Re: Orange? Invest 96L
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 8/16/2015, 10:12 pm
It's at "are showing some signs of organization" now. At 2pm it was "are beginning to show signs of organization".
"TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Cloudiness and showers associated with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands are showing some signs of organization. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this system during the next few days and a tropical depression could form by midweek while it moves westward near 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent
Forecaster Cangialosi"
SHIPS intensity and shear forecast (August 16th, 8pm EDT):
* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962015 08/17/15 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 37 42 50 56 62 68 74 77 79 80 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 37 42 50 56 62 68 74 77 79 80 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 30 33 37 44 53 59 64 71 79 86 88 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 2 1 3 2 1 3 7 3 3 7 14 8 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 10 4 1 2 3 5 6 5 -1 -6 -5 -5 SHEAR DIR 137 18 28 28 360 194 219 188 112 111 152 165 189 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.7 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 137 136 133 132 129 129 130 132 133 131 131 133 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 136 133 132 129 128 129 130 130 126 126 129 129 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.2 -53.1 -52.8 -52.8 -53.2 -53.1 -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 64 65 65 66 67 62 63 62 63 56 50 45 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 58 48 46 41 36 34 28 35 50 52 51 47 36 200 MB DIV 62 76 63 63 71 70 121 44 29 -3 -6 -29 -40 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -4 -4 -6 -5 -8 -8 -11 -7 -1 0 -1 LAND (KM) 1374 1481 1588 1700 1813 1846 1641 1458 1324 1205 1120 1029 930 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.2 10.3 10.5 10.7 11.0 11.2 11.4 11.6 11.7 11.8 11.9 12.0 LONG(DEG W) 29.2 30.3 31.4 32.5 33.7 35.9 38.1 40.2 41.9 43.5 44.8 46.3 47.9 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 8 7 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 16 15 15 15 16 21 18 12 12 16 18 20 27
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 28. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 17. 16. 15. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 17. 25. 31. 37. 43. 49. 52. 54. 55.
** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962015 INVEST 08/17/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 1.9 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 43% is 3.6 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 3.0%)
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962015 INVEST 08/17/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
From: http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/
Path of the SHIPS model (version that takes into account land, even though there is no land in 5 days): http://www.hurricanecity.com/models/data.cgi?basin=al&year=2015&storm=96&latestinvest=1&display=googlemap&latestrun=1&models=DSHP
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In this thread:
Orange? Invest 96L -
BobbiStorm,
8/16/2015, 12:34 pm- Levi's Tropical Tidbit - cypresstx, 8/17/2015, 4:26 pm
- from the pouch people - cypresstx, 8/17/2015, 4:03 pm
- High chance through 5 days as of 2am on Monday - Chris in Tampa, 8/17/2015, 2:04 am
- Re: Orange? Invest 96L - Chris in Tampa, 8/16/2015, 10:12 pm
- Re: Orange? Invest 96L - DTB_2009, 8/16/2015, 10:06 pm
- I missed it - cypresstx, 8/16/2015, 1:15 pm
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