Re: 11AM update at 9AM
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 10/27/2014, 10:22 pm
They don't often do things in the middle of the night at the NHC on something that has yet to exist. (or in this case, exist lately) The percentage chances should have been upped last night. They said pressures were not falling, but with something this small, that is not too surprising. But the winds were apparently there.
At 2am, 10%. At 8am, 30%. At 8:35am, 100%. At 9am, advisory. I don't think I have ever seen it go up that quick. And it might not even exist as a named storm over 24 hours. They should of named it earlier when the data came in that supported it. I'm not sure who makes the decision to name storms at the NHC. Can 1 meteorologist on duty do it or does it take a group decision? I'm not sure.
Hopefully the heaviest rain stays offshore where the northern part of the system is convective. Given the heavy rain just offshore, and potential stronger winds there though, they might keep advisories on the system going for a little bit.
This storm has definitely had an odd track since the Bay of Campeche.
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Meanwhile, large 95L may or may not develop, but it should move NE of the Leeward Islands. And may even pass well east of Bermuda if it lasts that long.
NHC 72 hour surface forecast image with a potential low NE of Puerto Rico and then an X noting movement to the NNE through to 96 hours:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc72_latestBW_sm3.gif
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and we have hanna -
cypresstx,
10/27/2014, 8:46 am Post A Reply
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