Mid MS - two caps
Posted by JAC on 10/26/2010, 11:52 am





MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2002
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  1005 AM CDT TUE OCT 26 2010
 
  AREAS AFFECTED...NERN LA THROUGH CNTRL MS
 
  CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
 
  VALID 261505Z - 261700Z
 
  CNTRL MS THROUGH NERN LA IS BEING MONITORED FOR DEEPER CONVECTIVE
  DEVELOPMENT AND POSSIBLE TORNADO WATCH. GIVEN LIMITATIONS WITHIN THE
  THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT THE SEVERE THREAT IN THIS REGION IS MORE
  CONDITIONAL...AND TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
  CONVECTIVE TRENDS.
 
  BAND OF SHALLOW CONVECTION WITHIN A ZONE OF PRE-FRONTAL ASCENT
  CONTINUES FROM NERN MS SWWD THROUGH CNTRL LA. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST
  ANOTHER LINE OF SCATTERED CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD
  FRONT FROM MIDDLE TN...NWRN MS AND NWRN LA. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
  60S TO AROUND 70 HAVE ADVECTED NWD THROUGH WARM SECTOR.
  HOWEVER...MORNING RAOB DATA INDICATE TWO INVERSIONS...THE MORE
  SIGNIFICANT OF WHICH WAS LOCATED AROUND 750 MB WHICH IS SERVING AS A
  CAP TO DEEPER CONVECTION. ANOTHER MORE SUBTLE INVERSION WAS
  INDICATED NEAR 500 MB AND IS CONTRIBUTING TO WEAKER MID LEVEL LAPSE
  RATES AND NORMALIZED CAPE WITH 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES GENERALLY LESS
  THAN 6 C/KM.
 
  A ZONE OF CLEARING HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF FRONT WHICH WILL HELP TO
  DESTABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER...WITH ZONE OF DEEPER ASCENT
  LIKELY REMAINING NORTH OF THIS REGION...IT IS NOT CLEAR WHETHER
  FORCING ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND OR COLD FRONT WILL BE
  SUFFICIENT TO MODIFY THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND SUSTAIN DEEPER
  MORE ROBUST CONVECTION. NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF LARGE
  HODOGRAPHS...IF TRENDS BEGIN TO SUGGEST STORMS WILL INTENSIFY...A
  TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
 
  ..DIAL.. 10/26/2010
 
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970mb Low over Midwest - JAC, 10/26/2010, 7:13 am
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