970mb Low over Midwest
Posted by JAC on 10/26/2010, 7:13 am






MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1999
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  0600 AM CDT TUE OCT 26 2010
 
  AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WI/SRN LOWER MI/ERN IL/INDIANA/WRN OH/SERN
  MO/ERN AR/WRN AND CENTRAL KY/NRN MS/WRN AND MIDDLE TN/NWRN AL
 
  CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 719...720...721...
 
  VALID 261100Z - 261300Z
 
  THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH
  719...720...721...CONTINUES.
 
  ARCING BAND OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES MOVING RAPIDLY
  EWD/ENEWD ACROSS THE MID AND UPPER MS VALLEY REGION AND
  VICINITY...ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A VERY
  STRONG UPPER SYSTEM CENTERED OVER MN/IA/MO ATTM.  A MOIST
  PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER IS SUPPORTING MODEST INSTABILITY --
  FUELING THE ONGOING STORMS...WHILE VERY STRONG FLOW FIELD THROUGH
  THE ENTIRE TROPOSPHERE IS AIDING IN STORM ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY.
  CONVECTION HAS REMAINED LARGELY CONFINED TO THE FRONTAL BAND -- AND
  THUS MAIN SEVERE THREAT REMAINS DAMAGING WINDS.  HOWEVER...WITH
  SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION...THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES
  WILL PERSIST EARLY THIS MORNING -- AND MAY INCREASE THROUGH MIDDAY
  AS POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRE-FRONTAL CELLULAR CONVECTION
  INCREASES.
 
  WITH THE MOST EWD PORTION OF THE ARCING BAND OF STORMS -- NOW MOVING
  INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION -- SHIFTING EWD AT 40 KT...STORMS
  WILL NEAR THE ERN FRINGE OF TORNADO WATCHES 720 AND 721 AROUND 13Z.
  THIS WILL REQUIRE NEW WATCH ISSUANCE WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
 
  ..GOSS.. 10/26/2010
 





PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  0511 AM CDT TUE OCT 26 2010
 
  ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO AND
  TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND GREAT LAKES...
 
  THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
  DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES OVER
  PARTS OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND GREAT LAKES TODAY
  THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
 
  THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE
 
         EASTERN ILLINOIS
         INDIANA
         NORTHERN KENTUCKY
         SOUTHERN MICHIGAN
         WESTERN AND CENTRAL OHIO
 
  ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE LOWER
  MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND LOWER
  GREAT LAKES
 
  A POWERFUL JET STREAM DISTURBANCE...WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 175
  MILES PER HOUR...WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ACROSS THE
  CENTRAL PLAINS INTO OHIO VALLEY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
 
  AT THE SAME TIME...AN INTENSE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET
  WILL FURTHER STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY NORTHEAST FROM MINNESOTA
  INTO WESTERN ONTARIO.
 
  A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH FROM THE LOW WILL SERVE AS THE MAIN
  FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE
  FRONT ACCELERATES EAST ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
  TODAY...AND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND THE APPALACHIANS
  TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY.
 
  THE VERY STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...AND INCREASING
  MOISTURE SPREADING RAPIDLY NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST STATES...WILL
  ALLOW THE THUNDERSTORMS TO ORGANIZE INTO BANDS THAT WILL BE CAPABLE
  OF PRODUCING SWATHS OF DAMAGING WIND AND A FEW STRONG TORNADOES.
 
  WHILE THE GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
  DURING THE DAY TODAY OVER THE OH AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...A MORE
  LIMITED THREAT FOR HIGH WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE
  THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY EASTWARD INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND THE LOWER
  GREAT LAKES.
 
  STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS POTENTIALLY
  VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO
  REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO
  RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE
  WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.
 
  ..CORFIDI.. 10/26/2010
 
213
In this thread:
970mb Low over Midwest - JAC, 10/26/2010, 7:13 am
< Return to the front page of the: message board | monthly archive this page is in
Post A Reply
This thread has been archived and can no longer receive replies.