Euro & GFS have a bead on a low-riding CV wave --> spins up in Carib mid next week
Posted by JAC on 10/25/2010, 7:00 am
Rather unusual this time of year; but, given the fact this is Euro & GFS confirms, worth keeping an eye on it.

The STR is forecast to build an Azore and Bermuda High.
MSLP is forecast to be low in the Carib.

A trop wave is currently at 25W.
90L is interacting with a hugh UL low and generating a large area of deep convection.
Technically, that convection will generate a negative moist potential vorticity (NMPV) in the upper troposphere.
The NMPV would most likely linger in the area and could help the 25W wave stay as a protected pouch and move west without feeling the effects of shear or dry air.
If it doesn't get whacked by the time it gets in the Carib, with low surface pressures, there may indeed be a chance for a spin up.

Wait and see.


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/euro/00zeurotropical850mbVortSLP_loop.html

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2010102500&field=850mb+Vorticity&hour=Animation



















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Euro & GFS have a bead on a low-riding CV wave --> spins up in Carib mid next week - JAC, 10/25/2010, 7:00 am
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