Or it stays at 30% at 2AM EDT on 10/19
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 10/19/2010, 1:49 am
I thought it would at least be 50%. The center is displaced some from the heaviest convection, but I think there is at least a 50/50 chance it will become a depression in the next 48 hours.



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE OCT 19 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE HONDURAS-
NICARAGUA BORDER.  SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD.  THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS DISTURBANCE BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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invest 99L - jimw, 10/16/2010, 9:21 pm
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