Re: Invest 98L or CTI-101L?
Posted by Target on 10/9/2010, 5:55 am
The recognition of an area of interest or invest is less of a forecast of where a potential storm is going than a forecast of where the center of a tropical cyclone is forming.

Although, areas that have had a history of creating dangerous cyclones which make landfall near populated areas might be given more weight than areas where new cyclones are likely to remain over water.

One loose criterion might be that some lower atmosphere rotation is observed in a total precipitable water loop, a radar loop, a satellite wind field map, or a satellite loop (rotation near the stratosphere generally does not count):
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/tpw2/natl/anim/latest72hrs.gif
http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/ascat_images/cur_25km/zooms/WMBds76.png

Another loose criterion might be that SST's are "sufficient" for cyclone genesis:
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/trinanes/HHP/TEST1/at.html
http://marine.rutgers.edu/cool/sat_data/?product=sst_comp&region=eastcoast&nothumbs=0
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/ml/ocean/sst/sst_50km.html

Low current shear as estimated by some common model could also be a loose criterion.
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/shr_00.gif
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=wxc&zoom=&time=

Some cloud formation observable by a satellite or a radar might be a loose criterion.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html
http://aviationweather.gov/adds/satellite/displaySat.php?region=CARIB&isingle=mult_big&itype=ir
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West Carib Yellow Box - JAC, 10/7/2010, 8:34 am
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