Colorado State University's hurricane forecasting team is calling for a near-record active season with 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and five major hurricanes. Blog post from Jeff Masters and Bob Henson: https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2024/04/forecasters-predict-an-extremely-active-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season/ An important section of the blog post: As is its practice, the CSU team included this standard disclaimer: "As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season. Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity." A caveat: April hurricane season forecasts have little or no 'skill' On average, April forecasts of hurricane season activity have had no "skill," or even negative skill, when computed using the Mean Square Skill Score (Figure 2). This does not mean a particular April forecast will be incorrect — just that, on average, a forecast simply using climatology would do as well or better. April forecasts must deal with the so-called spring predictability barrier. In April, the El Niño/La Niña phenomenon commonly undergoes a rapid change from one state to another, making it difficult to predict whether El Niño, La Niña, or neutral conditions will be in place for the coming hurricane season. However, spring forecast confidence is notably higher when El Niño is transitioning to La Niña, as is now predicted for this spring. As they said on the news tonight, it's expected that it will be an active season, but since no one knows where the storms will hit for certain, you have to prepare regardless. Here is a piece on the local news here in Tampa on it, highlighting the warm water temperatures: |