Generative AI to quantify uncertainty in weather forecasting
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 4/4/2024, 8:02 pm
Google's AI is in a product available through ECMWF (the organization that puts out the Euro model) that can be used for weather forecasting. I didn't see that in November. I saw a more recent news release and saw that in it.

Generative AI to quantify uncertainty in weather forecasting:
https://blog.research.google/2024/03/generative-ai-to-quantify-uncertainty.html

Accurate weather forecasts can have a direct impact on people's lives, from helping make routine decisions, like what to pack for a day's activities, to informing urgent actions, for example, protecting people in the face of hazardous weather conditions. The importance of accurate and timely weather forecasts will only increase as the climate changes. Recognizing this, we at Google have been investing in weather and climate research to help ensure that the forecasting technology of tomorrow can meet the demand for reliable weather information. Some of our recent innovations include MetNet-3, Google's high-resolution forecasts up to 24-hours into the future, and GraphCast, a weather model that can predict weather up to 10 days ahead.

The GraphCast link is about the 10 day model.

Data for that 10 day model...

"Experimental: GraphCast ML model: Mean sea level pressure and 850 hPa wind speed
Machine learning"
https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/graphcast_medium-mslp-wind850?projection=opencharts_west_tropic

ECMWF is now running an experimental suite to evaluate the forecasting skill of a series of publicly available data-driven forecast models initialised by ECMWF 4D-Var analysis. ECMWF provides the output for testing and comparison purposes.

See Machine Learning model data for more details

Model: GraphCast, Google DeepMind
Training data: Copernicus ERA5 and ECMWF HRES analysis
Initial conditions: ECMWF HRES
Resolution: 0.25°
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Generative AI to quantify uncertainty in weather forecasting - Chris in Tampa, 4/4/2024, 8:02 pm
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