| I'm off to bed. I have to get up to overnight at times to check on the storm. And get up in the morning and watch it very closely when it comes to the worst time for surge. (while things seem to be better for my area, I have to watch in case I do need to head to the parking garage a mile away) I went and measured some today to see what water level would cut off my evacuation route. If I don't need it this time, I'll know for next time. This is going to be devastating to those who could see 15 feet of surge. (and to many areas around it that are low lying, this entire region has low areas) It's strengthening now and will likely do so rapidly until landfall. 5pm Track: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/?cone#contents Satellite Floater: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater.php?stormid=AL102023 https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=al102023 Southeast US Satellite: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16§or=se&band=13&length=24 Through landfall, hurricane hunters should be in the center every three hours: https://hurricanecity.com/recon/ Recon Plan of the Day: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/recon.php Hurricane Idalia Intermediate Advisory Number 13A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023 800 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023 ...IDALIA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...LIKELY TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE SOON... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.9N 84.7W ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM S OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Englewood northward to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Middle of Longboat Key northward to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dry Tortugas Florida * Chokoloskee northward to the Middle of Longboat Key * West of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach * Sebastian Inlet Florida to Surf City North Carolina A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Bonita Beach northward to Englewood, including Charlotte Harbour * Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee River South Carolina * Beaufort Inlet to Drum Inlet North Carolina * Neuse and Pamlico Rivers North Carolina A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Edisto Beach South Carolina A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Lower Florida Keys west of the west end of the Seven Mile Bridge * North of Surf City North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Additional warnings will likely be required tonight or on Wednesday. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Idalia was located near latitude 26.9 North, longitude 84.7 West. Idalia is moving toward the north near 16 mph (26 km/h). A northward to north-northeastward motion is expected through tonight, with Idalia's center forecast to reach the Big Bend coast of Florida on Wednesday morning. After landfall, the center of Idalia is forecast to turn toward the northeast and east-northeast, moving near or along the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina late Wednesday and Thursday. Observations from Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Idalia is expected to become a major hurricane tonight before it reaches the Big Bend coast of Florida. Idalia is likely to still be a hurricane while moving across southern Georgia, and possibly when it reaches the coast of Georgia or southern South Carolina on Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). The minimum central pressure based on Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 965 mb (28.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Idalia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Aucilla River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...10-15 ft Yankeetown to Chassahowitzka, FL...7-11 ft Ochlockonee River, FL to Aucilla River, FL...7-11 ft Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-9 ft Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...4-6 ft Tampa Bay...4-6 ft Carrabelle, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...4-7 ft Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...3-5 ft Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...2-4 ft Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft Indian Pass, FL to Carrabelle, FL...3-5 ft Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee, SC...2-4 ft Beaufort Inlet to Drum Inlet, NC...2-4 ft Pamlico and Neuse Rivers...2-4 ft South of Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee, FL...1-3 ft South Santee, SC to Beaufort Inlet, NC...1-3 ft Drum Inlet to Duck, NC...1-3 ft Chokoloskee, FL to East Cape Sable, FL...1-3 ft Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Mouth of St. Mary's River...1-3 ft Indian Pass to Mexico Beach...1 to 3 ft. Florida Keys...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in Florida by tonight or early Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions beginning soon. Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the Dry Tortugas and are possible within the Lower Florida Keys. Tropical storm conditions will begin within the tropical storm warning area along the Florida Gulf coast and the Florida west coast soon. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area along the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina Wednesday and Wednesday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin on Wednesday in the warning area along the east coast of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina, and spread into North Carolina Wednesday night and Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in North Carolina by Thursday. RAINFALL: Idalia is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Western Cuba: 4 to 7 inches, with isolated higher totals of 10 inches. Portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, southeast Georgia and the eastern Carolinas: 4 to 8 inches from Tuesday into Thursday. Isolated higher totals of 12 inches are possible, primarily near landfall in northern Florida. This rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding, and landslides across western Cuba. Areas of flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally significant, are expected across portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and southern Georgia Tuesday into Wednesday, spreading into portions of the eastern Carolinas Wednesday into Thursday. SURF: Swells generated by Idalia are affecting the southwestern coast of Florida and will spread northward and westward to the north-central Gulf coast through Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible along the west central Florida coast through tonight. The tornado threat will also spread northward into the Florida Big Bend tonight, and toward southeast Georgia and the coastal Carolinas Wednesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch Radar: NOAA's Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) System display: https://mrms.nssl.noaa.gov/qvs/product_viewer/index.php?time_mode=update&zoom=7&clon=-83.2&clat=28.9&product_type=crefls&product=CREF&opacity=0.9&looping_active=on WFLA, the NBC affiliate, has their own radar with data every 1 to 2 minutes: https://www.wfla.com/interactive-radar/ Sometimes this hasn't worked: https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/current-weather-conditions/west-central-florida/large-scale-loop Really long loops from Brian McNoldy: https://bmcnoldy.rsmas.miami.edu/tropics/radar/ Enhanced NOAA radar display: https://radar.weather.gov/?settings=v1_eyJhZ2VuZGEiOnsiaWQiOm51bGwsImNlbnRlciI6Wy04My4wOTUsMjUuNjY2XSwibG9jYXRpb24iOm51bGwsInpvb20iOjcuMjQ4MDc5NzMzMzAyODIyfSwiYW5pbWF0aW5nIjpmYWxzZSwiYmFzZSI6InN0YW5kYXJkIiwiYXJ0Y2MiOmZhbHNlLCJjb3VudHkiOmZhbHNlLCJjd2EiOmZhbHNlLCJyZmMiOmZhbHNlLCJzdGF0ZSI6ZmFsc2UsIm1lbnUiOnRydWUsInNob3J0RnVzZWRPbmx5IjpmYWxzZSwib3BhY2l0eSI6eyJhbGVydHMiOjAuOCwibG9jYWwiOjAuNiwibG9jYWxTdGF0aW9ucyI6MC44LCJuYXRpb25hbCI6MC42fX0%3D College of DuPage: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-Florida-comp_radar-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined |