Low could develop over NW Caribbean & move into eastern Gulf. Some slow development is possible over next week
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 8/23/2023, 9:16 pm
The NHC started covering this at 8pm EDT tonight (Wednesday) in the Atlantic 7-Day Outlook. Relevant item from the outlook:
3. Northwestern Caribbean Sea:
An area of low pressure could form in a couple of days over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea. Some slow development of this system
is possible over the weekend and early next week while it moves
slowly northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
I saw it in the Canadian model last night, but that's not usually one I look at and the others didn't show it that I recall at the time.
Euro shows it now. (12Z Wednesday run did)
Euro:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn
GFS as of posting doesn't show it, but maybe that will change:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn
As of posting, the 18Z Wednesday GFS does show something in that area, but it's two weeks from now. (which is next to meaningless this far out) That is not what the NHC and Euro are talking about.
It's early, but people along the eastern and northern Gulf coast should keep an eye on it.
I am going to link to specific run of the Euro. This link will not update to the latest Euro run, it's the specific 12Z Wednesday run:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2023082312
Jeff Berardelli is the chief meteorologist in Tampa for NBC's affiliate and he was talking about it's origin in the East Pacific potentially. You can see that in that Euro run.
I'll include some of his tweet this evening.
He's also on Threads:
https://www.threads.net/@weatherprofjeff
Here is the Euro ensemble members on Tropical Tidbits' site:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps®ion=watl&pkg=lowlocs
And at Weathernerds:
https://www.weathernerds.org/models/ecens.html
To view the end of the run, above the map, hover over "Loop" and then click "Get Loop". Or, hover over "Forecast Hour" to the left of the map and then select a forecast hour, like "120 Hr". (5 days) Then either press "Enter" or click the "Update Plot" button.
And unrelated to that, I was looking at his tweets and saw this one too that was interesting:
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Low could develop over NW Caribbean & move into eastern Gulf. Some slow development is possible over next week - Chris in Tampa, 8/23/2023, 9:16 pm Post A Reply