| NHC's Atlantic 7-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7 Up to 70% chance as of 8pm EDT Sunday. Gulf of Mexico satellite: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16§or=gm&band=13&length=12 https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-gulf-13-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=data Floater from Colorado State: https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=al912023 It's starting to show some signs of organization on satellite. Air Force hurricane hunters are scheduled to investigate it Monday afternoon. Plan of the Day: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/recon.php Recon: https://hurricanecity.com/recon/ Global models: Eastern U.S.: GFS: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=eus&pkg=mslp_pcpn Euro: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=eus&pkg=mslp_pcpn Both show some development, a tropical storm it seems, as of now. To see it even closer up, but cuts off inland Texas, choose "REGIONS" and then "Southeast U.S.". Storm specific models: https://hurricanecity.com/models/ Looking at the SHIPS intensity text output, which you can see in part graphically with the storm specific models above, has it becoming a moderate tropical storm. Look for latest dated "AL9123": https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/?C=M;O=D Sorted so most recent files are first. While I don't know what most of it is, SHIPS intensity forecast, taking land into account, is "V (KT) LAND". Peaks at 54 knots (62 mph) before landfall as of 8pm EDT Sunday run. (0Z Monday) * GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912023 08/21/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 37 42 54 55 48 45 36 34 30 29 28 26 24 24 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 37 42 54 37 30 28 27 27 28 29 30 30 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 30 32 35 40 32 28 27 27 27 28 29 30 30 30 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 15 12 9 8 13 14 18 9 19 16 22 21 28 32 42 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 3 -3 -1 -1 -1 6 0 2 0 -1 3 5 -4 5 -1 7 SHEAR DIR 226 238 242 226 219 106 156 126 168 188 213 233 262 290 287 316 308 SST (C) 31.4 31.2 31.6 31.4 31.4 30.3 29.4 29.1 29.9 29.0 29.7 30.7 31.3 31.2 31.0 31.8 31.8 POT. INT. (KT) 173 173 173 174 174 174 161 157 170 153 164 170 171 171 172 173 173 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -52.2 -51.9 -51.9 -51.5 -51.6 -51.5 -51.8 -52.0 -52.3 -51.9 -51.9 -51.6 -51.1 -50.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 -0.4 0.1 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 10 10 8 11 6 9 6 9 1 6 0 3 0 1 700-500 MB RH 59 57 59 60 61 59 64 59 58 58 55 53 52 52 52 56 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 11 12 16 10 6 5 2 3 2 3 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 2 12 7 10 10 19 -10 -17 -7 -20 -25 -32 -5 -48 -28 -38 200 MB DIV 6 -17 -19 17 22 17 51 -31 24 4 5 -11 5 -7 -7 -16 -52 700-850 TADV -2 -10 -7 0 -4 -2 0 0 0 -1 -7 11 14 38 36 65 -13 LAND (KM) 273 353 382 424 438 85 -250 -625 -648 -706 -891 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 LAT (DEG N) 24.6 24.8 25.0 25.3 25.5 26.1 27.3 29.4 32.2 35.1 37.5 39.1 40.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 85.7 87.2 88.8 90.6 92.5 96.3 100.0 103.4 106.0 107.1 107.1 106.7 106.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 16 17 17 18 17 19 17 14 10 8 8 10 12 14 16 HEAT CONTENT 158 91 48 53 65 46 4 4 24 18 29 6 7 6 6 7 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 42.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 5. 10. 14. 16. 17. 16. 15. 12. 7. 1. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 6. 1. -6. -9. -14. -14. -16. -15. -17. -18. -19. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 4. 7. 10. 14. 13. 9. 5. -0. -5. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -9. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 12. 17. 29. 30. 23. 20. 11. 9. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 24.6 85.7 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912023 INVEST 08/21/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.67 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 83.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.51 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.34 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 148.4 27.0 to 144.1 1.00 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.15 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 92.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.83 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 27.7% 14.1% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% 13.4% 0.0% Logistic: 5.4% 26.7% 17.9% 7.8% 3.0% 12.2% 11.7% 3.7% Bayesian: 0.1% 2.6% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% Consensus: 3.8% 19.0% 10.9% 5.5% 1.0% 4.1% 8.4% 1.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 5.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912023 INVEST 08/21/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912023 INVEST 08/21/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 31 37 42 54 37 30 28 27 27 28 29 30 30 30 30 18HR AGO 25 24 27 33 38 50 33 26 24 23 23 24 25 26 26 26 26 12HR AGO 25 22 21 27 32 44 27 20 18 17 17 18 19 20 20 20 20 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 20 32 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT |