BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nicole Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
400 PM EST Thu Nov 10 2022

...CENTER OF NICOLE STRADDLING THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
REGION...
...POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR STORM SURGE, STRONG WINDS, AND HEAVY
RAINS...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.4N 83.2W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM NNW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued along the Florida
east coast south of the Flagler/Volusia county line, and along the
coasts of Georgia and South Carolina north of Altamaha Sound,
Georgia.

The Tropical Storm Warning for the Florida west coast has been
discontinued south of Aripeka.

The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued for the Florida east
coast south of the Flagler/Volusia County Line.

The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued from the South Santee
River South Carolina to the Altamaha Sound Georgia and from the
Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass Florida.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Flagler/Volusia county line Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia
* Aripeka to Indian Pass Florida

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Flagler/Volusia County Line Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia
* Mouth of the St. Johns River to Georgetown Florida
* Anclote River Florida to Ochlockonee River Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

Interests in the remainder of Florida and along the southeastern
coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Nicole.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicole was
located near latitude 29.4 North, longitude 83.2 West. Nicole is
moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general
motion should continue this evening, followed by a turn toward the
north tonight. Nicole is expected to accelerate north-northeastward
on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Nicole will move
along the coast of the Florida Big Bend region for the next several
hours before moving across the eastern Florida Panhandle. After
that, Nicole should move northward over Georgia later tonight, and
then move through the southeastern United States on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. These winds are mainly occurring over the Gulf of Mexico to
the west of the center. Little change in strength is expected this
evening while the center moves along the coast of the Florida Big
Bend. Nicole is expected to weaken to a depression over Georgia
tonight, and then it is expected to dissipate as it merges with a
frontal boundary over the Mid-Atlantic United States by Friday
night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center. A WeatherSTEM station on the campus of the
University of Florida in Gainesville recently reported a wind gust
of 54 mph (87 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).
The NOAA National Ocean Service Station station at Cedar Key,
Florida, recently reported a pressure of 989.5 mb (29.22 inches) as
the center passed nearby.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nicole can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue along portions of the
east coast of Florida and Georgia in the warning areas this evening.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to occur within the warning
area along the west coast of Florida through tonight.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

* Flagler/Volusia County Line Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia
including the St. Johns River...2 to 4 ft
* Anclote River to Ochlockonee River...2 to 4 ft
* Altamaha Sound Georgia to the Savannah River...1 to 3 ft
* Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass...1 to 2 ft
* Englewood to Anclote River including Tampa Bay...1 to 2 ft
* North of Ocean Reef to Flagler/Volusia County Line Florida
including Biscayne Bay...1 to 2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Saturday:

* Northwest Bahamas and the Florida Peninsula: An inch or less of
additional rainfall.
* Eastern Florida Panhandle and Florida Big Bend into the
Southeast, southern and central Appalachians, eastern and central
portions of Tennessee, Kentucky, and Ohio: 2 to 4 inches with local
maxima of 6 to 8 inches along the Blue Ridge.
* Northern Mid-Atlantic into New England: 1 to 4 inches.

Flash and urban flooding will be possible, along with renewed river
rises on the St. Johns River, across the Florida Peninsula today.
Heavy rainfall from this system will spread northward across
portions of the Southeast, upper Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and New
England through Saturday, where limited flooding impacts will be
possible.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with
Hurricane Nicole, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS2 with
the WMO header ACUS42 KWBC or at the following link:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc2.html

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this afternoon through
tonight over parts of southeastern Georgia, eastern South Carolina,
and southeastern North Carolina. The threat will spread northward
into Virginia and more of North Carolina during the day on Friday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Nicole will affect the northwestern
Bahamas, the east coast of Florida, and much of the southeastern
United States coast during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM EST.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Tropical Storm Nicole Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
400 PM EST Thu Nov 10 2022

The center of Nicole briefly emerged over water north of Tampa
around 18Z and is now straddling the coast of the Florida Big Bend
region northwest of Cedar Key. An earlier scatterometer overpass
showed winds of about 40 kt west of the center over the Gulf of
Mexico, and this is the main basis for the initial intensity of
40 kt. Surface observations indicate that the central pressure has
risen to near 990 mb. In addition to weakening, the 34-kt
wind radii associated with the storm have decreased, particularly
in the northeastern quadrant. This has resulted in significant
changes to the warnings with this advisory.

The initial motion is now 315/13, and this motion is expected to
persist through this evening with the center moving into the eastern
Florida Panhandle. Subsequently, a low- to mid-level ridge to the
northeast of Nicole should move farther eastward as a deep-layer
mid-latitude trough and associated surface cold front are
approaching from the west. This evolution should cause the storm to
turn northward tonight over Georgia, followed by a faster motion
toward the north-northeast on Friday. The new forecast track has
only minor adjustments from the previous track.

Little change in strength is expected until the center moves
farther inland tonight. When that happens, Nicole should weaken to
a depression over Georgia. On Friday and Friday night, the system
is expected to become post-tropical and be absorbed by the large
mid-latitude weather system.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions will continue along portions of the
east coast of Florida and Georgia this evening. Tropical storm
conditions will spread northward along the west coast of Florida to
the coast of the Florida Panhandle through tonight.

2. A storm surge warning is in effect for portions of the
northeastern coast of Florida, the southern Georgia coast, and the
Florida Big Bend. Residents in the warning area should listen to
advice given by local officials.

3. Do not focus on the exact track of Nicole since it is a large
storm with hazards extending well to the north of the center,
outside of the forecast cone. These hazards will continue to
affect much of the Florida peninsula and portions of the southeast
United States.

4. Nicole will produce heavy rainfall this evening across the
Florida Peninsula. Flash and urban flooding will be possible across
portions of the Florida Peninsula along with renewed river flooding
on the St. Johns River. Isolated flash, urban, and small stream
flooding will also be possible on Friday in the Southeast through
the central Appalachians, including the Blue Ridge Mountains, and
extending northward through eastern Ohio, west central Pennsylvania,
into western New York by Friday night into Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 29.4N 83.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...ALONG THE COAST
12H 11/0600Z 31.2N 84.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 11/1800Z 34.9N 82.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven