Re: What's up with the ECMWF Model??
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 7/2/2021, 10:52 am
The Euro (ECMWF) had a more hostile environment depicted based on what a meteorologist said last night on TV here in Tampa.
The following is a link to an OLD NHC discussion when the storm was 45mph:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2021/al05/al052021.discus.005.shtml?
"The latter part of the intensity forecast also
has the issues of possible land interaction and disagreements among
the global models on how favorable the upper-level winds will be,
although the latest model runs trended toward less favorable
conditions north of about 22N."
For now, unless the storm starts weakening, they'll have to go with the other models for now, like they kind of were doing, but maybe put even less weight on the Euro for now. I don't know. Conditions could get more hostile, but no one knows. That's why the NHC's discussions on track and intensity have been so important with this storm. They have been really stressing that uncertainty. In the 5am discussion this morning they said:
"In the short term, while Elsa moves across the warm Caribbean
waters, some additional strengthening seems likely. However, the
fast forward speed of the storm and associated mid-level wind shear
should prevent significant intensification. Since the new forecast
is a little higher than the previous one and shows peak winds just
below hurricane force on Saturday near Haiti, tropical storm
warnings have been issued for portions of the Dominican Republic and
Haiti and a hurricane watch is now in effect for the southern
portion of Haiti out of abundance of caution. The degree of land
interaction with the mountainous islands of Hispaniola and Cuba will
be a big factor in the future strength of Elsa at days 4 and 5.
Like the track forecast, there is a huge model spread with solutions
ranging from dissipation in the Caribbean to a category 3 hurricane.
Given the uncertainty, the intensity forecast generally keeps the
storm steady in strength from 24 to 120 h, and it remains on the low
side of the model guidance."
From old discussion:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2021/al05/al052021.discus.007.shtml?
They weren't ruling out those scenarios, from dissipation to category 3. They just don't know. They were just keeping it at basically the same wind speed until something got clearer.
I don't follow changes in the models much at all, so I don't know if the Euro has underwent any changes. Maybe it will be correct later in the forecast, we just don't know. It's just that for now it isn't. I don't know if recon data helps other global models. Maybe the Euro will get a better handle on it in future runs. |
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What's up with the ECMWF Model?? -
Beachlover,
7/2/2021, 10:23 am Post A Reply
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