Re: Now a tropical depression
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 7/1/2021, 3:35 am
Euro is much more eastward in the longer term than the GFS has been so far. 0Z Thursday run is available.
Euro:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=watl&pkg=mslp_uv850
Vorticity to pick it up a little better:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=watl&pkg=uv850_vort
Until the Euro and GFS come together more, there's still a lot of uncertainty in the track later on. And if there is a lot of uncertainty with the track, in addition to whatever shear there might be, there is a lot of land that it may or may not go over which could have a significant impact on intensity.
Euro is above Cuba and GFS is below Cuba on it right now. We'll have to see how it gains latitude. It's moving so fast right now. We'll have to see what starts to happen as it slows and see which one is more correct as it passes over the islands. Which global model was better at that point and are they more in line at that point with each other. For the 72 hour forecast comparison (July 4th, 0Z) between the GFS and Euro, the Euro is about 360 miles N/NNW of the GFS position, with GFS south of Haiti and the Euro in the southeastern Bahamas. That is a massive difference.
This is a case where people need to not focus on the center line, but at the very least the entire cone or even beyond it. The Euro has the center of the storm, or whatever it is that the Euro depicts it as at that point, very outside the cone in 72 hours. I should note again for those that don't know that the cone is created based on 5 year error in the basin and people can learn more about that here:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutcone.shtml
There is a lot more uncertainty with this storm in the longer range right now and that is not reflected in the cone.
Indications are from best track data that TD Five will be upgraded to Elsa at 5am EDT. It's not official until they do it in the advisory, but looks like it will probably get the upgrade shortly. |
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